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Fertilizer Market Report – Oct 11, 2023

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Fertilizer Market Report – October 11, 2023

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Upward Price Trends in Western Canada: Fertilizer Market Report – Oct 11, 2023

We maintain our outlook that fertilizer prices in Western Canada are poised for an upward trajectory. Several factors contribute to this perspective, such as the extended shipping timeline for the recent India urea tender, anticipated restrictions on exports from China, reduced barge movement due to low water levels on the Mississippi, and significantly elevated ammonia prices worldwide. These elements collectively bolster our view on the potential for price increases.

 

India Urea Tender to Close October 20 for Shipment December 10

The underlying tone of this tender is higher prices due to India needing to secure the required tonnes of at least 1.5m tonnes and China still indicating that it will not allow large urea exports. If you recall, India tendered for over 1m tonnes in its previous tender but received 525,000 tonnes due to a trader offering at low prices, which scared away majority of the supply. The wait for the closing of this most recent tender will likely keep the global market resting on its laurels until traders see tender prices.

Bunge Shareholders Approve the Merger with Viterra

Reuters reported on October 6, that Bunge shareholders approved the merger with Viterra. The closing date is expected in mid-2024, and the signoff from the Canadian government is still required.

North America Urea Last Week  

Urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$765-C$785/mt DEL, according to Green Markets.

Meanwhile, urea prices in Eastern Canada were down slightly to a range of C$695-C$725/mt, from the previous week’s C$705-C$770/mt; while urea NOLA price range tightened to US$380-US$405/st from the previous week’s US$370-US$420/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest MAP offers in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$1,035-C$1,050/mt DEL.

MAP pricing was reported by Green Markets at C$880-$915/mt FOB in Eastern Canada.

The latest MAP NOLA prices were quoted at US$615-US$650/st FOB, flat WoW.

Industry Tidbits

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Advisory Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains certain information and statements (“forward-looking statements”) that constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements relate to future results or events, are based upon internal plans, intentions, current expectations and reasonable beliefs, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated or suggested therein. All statements other than statements of current or historical fact constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are typically, but not always, identified by words such as “anticipate”, “assume”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “forecast”, “continue”, “contemplate”, “propose”, “may”, “can”, “will”, “if”, “to be”, “aim”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “believe”, “plan”, “target”, “objective”, “project”, “potential”, “outlook”, “subject to”, “working toward” and similar or other expressions indicating or suggesting future results or events.

Forward-looking statements are not promises of future outcomes. There is no assurance that the results or events indicated or suggested by the forward-looking statements, or the plans, intentions, expectations or beliefs contained therein or upon which they are based, are correct or will in fact occur or be realized (or if they do, what benefits Genesis Fertilizers or limited partners of Genesis Fertilizers may derive therefrom). In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this press release contains forward-looking statements pertaining to: the construction of the Genesis Fertilizer’s fertilizer plant; design options and use of latest technologies available for the fertilizer plant; the fertilizer plant’s products; minimizing emissions from the fertilizer plant and sustainability; the existence and sustainability of any competitive advantage that Genesis Fertilizers may be able to offer; the commercial operations date of the fertilizer plant; and the benefits of the foregoing on the investment of limited partners in Genesis Fertilizers.

The forward-looking statements contained herein reflect management’s current views, but the assessments and assumptions upon which they are based may prove to be incorrect. Although Genesis Fertilizers believes that its underlying assessments and assumptions are reasonable based on currently available information, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements, which are inherently uncertain, depend upon the accuracy of such assessments and assumptions, and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, both general and specific, many of which are beyond Genesis Fertilizers’ control, that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated or suggested in the forward-looking statements. As Genesis Fertilizers is currently in the capital raising phase of the project, such risks and uncertainties are numerous and include, but are not limited to, access to the significant amounts of required capital and debt financing for construction and initial operation of the fertilizer plant and distribution facilities; general economic, business and industry conditions; the state of the economy and the agricultural crop input business; business prospects and opportunities; variance of Genesis Fertilizers’ actual capital costs versus projections and estimates, operating costs and economic returns from those anticipated; the availability of government grants and programs; and risks related to the sourcing of feedstock and the manufacturing of nitrogen fertilizer.

This press release is not a solicitation to invest in Genesis Fertilizers.