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Fertilizer Market Report – October 4, 2023

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Upward Price Pressure: Fertilizer Market Report Insights for October 4, 2023

We are still of the view that fertilizer price risk in Western Canada is to the upside. A confluence of events including India needing to retender for urea, expected limited exports from China, low water levels on the Mississippi limiting barge movement, and much higher ammonia prices globally will support prices in our view.

Transport Canada to Review the Announced Merger Between Bunge and Viterra

We find this news interesting because both companies hold an interest in port terminals in Canada. Competition is vital in agriculture logistics, especially for producers. There will be a public interest assessment of the proposed acquisition that must be completed by June 2, 2024.

Summary of Argus Media’s Weekly Fertilizer Market Update

• Urea was volatile during the week, but Argus believes that India may stabilize the market going forward.
• Urea prices eroded through the week.
• Expectations of India’s return to the market stabilized prices later in the week.
• Chines urea exports are expected to remain limited.
• Argus’s outlook for urea is stable to firm because there is not a lot of length in the market.
• The phosphate market continues to be supported by Indian demand.
• Indian buying led to an active DAP spot market.
• Prices were broadly stable.
• Low Chinese exports are supportive of prices.
• The outlook for phosphate is still well supported with persistent demand from South Asia and Europe and some additional demand has materialized from Brazil for MAP.

Video: Argus fertilizer markets monthly update Oct 2, 2023

Argus Fertilizer Affordability Index Falls to Six-Month Low (Source: Argus Media Group 2023)

Fertilizer product affordability has dropped to a six-month low as fertilizer becomes more expensive owing to high demand, while crop prices retreat in line with the start of the grain and oilseed harvest in the northern hemisphere, according to the Argus Fertilizer Affordability Index.

North America Urea Last Week  

Urea prices in Western Canada were stronger WoW in a range of C$765-C$785/mt DEL, up from C$755/mt the previous week, according to Green Markets.

We are hearing of retail urea prices at C$810/mt October FOB in Southern SK and November at C$800/mt FOB Southern SK.

According to Green Markets, last week, urea NOLA prices decreased to a range of US$370-US$420/st from the previous week’s US$405-US$435/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week

The latest MAP offers in Western Canada tightened to a range of C$1,035-C$1,050/mt DEL from C$1,000-C$1,050/mt DEL the previous week, according to Green Markets.

The latest MAP NOLA prices were quoted at US$615-US$650/st FOB, slightly more on the high end than the previous week’s range of US$615-US$645/st.

Industry Tidbits

• Fertilizer affordability falls to six-month low according to Argus Media’s Fertilizer Affordability Index
• Wheat Set for Longest Run of Quarterly Declines in 14 Years – Bloomberg
• Scoular boosts flax processing capacity near Regina – Grainews
• Big Turkish crop shocks durum market | The Western Producer

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