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Fertilizer Market Report – October 18, 2023

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Are The Higher Prices Here to Stay? 

Fertilizer Market. Report – October 18, 2023.

We received a call last week from a person who wanted to discuss phosphate fertilizers in Western Canada. Below is a recap of the conversation.

• Western Canada became fully dependent on phosphate imports in 2019 when Nutrien shuttered its Redwater, Alberta MAP production facility.
• At that time, Western Canada had to figure out a new way to do business in phosphate fertilizers. Canada is now fully reliant on imports.
• We experienced range-bound prices the two years before the closing of Redwater and one year following the closing in May 2019. Then we experienced a reset to a new higher price range that seems to have a floor of roughly C$800/mt.
• Are these higher prices here to stay? Possibly.

• This excerpt from an article published by S&P Global Ratings in September 2022 still stands today: “We anticipate phosphate prices will continue to decline in the near term (which they did from September 2022 until September 2023), reflecting improved international availability, but still remain historically high, owing to the elevated prices of ammonia and sulfur, as well as the potential for further supply disruption.”
• Again, our view is the same for MAP in western Canada as well as urea. We maintain our outlook that fertilizer prices in Western Canada are more likely poised for an upward trajectory versus a downward trajectory going into spring 2024.

News of the Week

India Urea Tender to Close Oct 20 for Dec 10 Shipment

The prevailing view is that India will likely have to pay more than the last tender for the massive estimated 3MMT of urea the country requires by February 2024 to cover its shortfall. Indian importers need to be careful to not bite at a low-price offer for a small volume and scare away other traders again in this tender. This tender alone will likely support global urea prices within a range.

North America Urea Last Week  

Urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$765-C$785/mt DEL, according to Green Markets. This was the third week of unchanged prices.

Last week, urea NOLA price range was down to US$355-US$397/st from the previous week’s US$380-US$405/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week

The latest MAP offers in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$1,035-C$1,050/mt DEL, according to Green Markets. This was the third week of no change.

According to Green Markets, the latest MAP NOLA prices were quoted at US$615-US$650/st FOB, flat WoW.

Industry Tidbits

• IFA Updated Global Fertilizer Consumption Database
• How a Fertilizer Shortage Is Spreading Desperate Hunger – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
• Faith in StatCan continues to nosedive | The Western Producer
• When family no longer wants to farm | The Western Producer

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