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Fertilizer Market Report – June 12, 2024
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In this week’s fertilizer report:
- Comments from urea trader Ebrahim Argha surrounding the global urea situation
- Tightening Urea Supply supports Genesis Fertilizers Model
- North American Urea and MAP prices
- Industry Tidbits
News of the Week
Great Review of Last Week’s Global Urea Market from Ilya Motorygin
“In this week’s fertilizer report: Comments from urea trader Ilya Motorygin surrounding the global urea situation, Can the USD/CAD go to $1.40?, North American Urea and MAP prices, and Industry Tidbits”
Can the USD/CAD Go To $1.40?
The following article is full of trading jargon but don’t worry our team here at Genesis can translate! The message is that the CAD could weaken further as we have been worried about due to the Bank of Canada lowering rates before the US Fed. This seems to be coming to fruition.
Canadian Dollar Forecast for June 11, 2024
North America Urea Last Week
Two big pieces of news are driving the global urea markets last week and this week.
The first is Egypt cutting urea production due to curtailed natural gas supplies to fertilizer manufacturers. This impacts the global markets because Egypt was the fourth largest exporter of urea in 2022. Overall, EU production is currently down 25% and Egypt production is offline like Brazil is.
The second big piece of news is China halting urea export inspections. China would like to build domestic supplies to lower prices and ensure appropriate supplies for Chinese farms. China was the ninth largest urea exporter in 2022.
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were quoted in a range of C$775-$780/mt DEL, unchanged WoW for the sixth week in a row. There has not been much action in urea in Western Canada as producers complete seeding.
We believe that urea prices in Western Canada are going to eventually correct to the downside. Our advice again this week is sit and wait.
Last week, NOLA urea prices rose slightly on the back of the news out of Egypt, to a range of US$290-$302/st from a range of US$284-$291/st the previous week.
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW for the ninth week in a row in a range of C$1,135-$1,145/mt. This year, MAP prices in Western Canada have been firm. Again, not much happening in MAP in Western Canada as producers complete seeding.
MAP NOLA was up 5% on average to a range of US$590-$600/st from the previous week’s range of US$550-$580/st. In the last five weeks, MAP NOLA has risen 23% on average.
Industry Tidbits
- Third wettest May on record provides optimism for Medicine Hat area farmers | CHAT News Today
- AI technology in Sask. changing the way farmers look at grain | CTV News
- Possible Canadian rail strike start delayed again | Latest Market News (argusmedia.com)
- U.S. Farming Outlook: Opportunities and Challenges | BMO Capital Markets
- The Nitrogen Cycle: Key Factors for Successful Soil Management | LinkedIn
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