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Fertilizer Market Report – June 6, 2024
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In this week’s fertilizer report:
- Comments from urea trader Ebrahim Argha surrounding the global urea situation
- Tightening Urea Supply supports Genesis Fertilizers
- North American Urea and MAP prices
- Industry Tidbits
News of the Week
Urea Markets: A Balancing Act on a Global Seesaw
Another great commentary from experienced fertilizer trader, Ebrahim Argha, explaining the current global urea situation comparing the action in the east versus the west.
“The urea market finds itself precariously balanced on a global seesaw. On one end, the potential surge of Chinese exports, unleashed by relaxed CIQ controls, threatens to tip prices downward. Weakening global demand adds another layer of uncertainty, making the market more vulnerable.”
Tightening Urea Supply May See Price Increases
The following article discussing comments from Yara’s Chief Financial Officer in a webinar strengthens the Genesis Fertilizers business plan as it explains “the peak of new capacity additions has passed and there is significantly lower supply growth from 2024 onward.”
https://www.producer.com/news/tightening-urea-supply-may-see-prices-increase/
North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were quoted in a range of C$775-$780/mt DEL, unchanged WoW for the fifth week in a row.
Notice in the chart below that urea prices in Western Canada have yet to reset down in lockstep with urea NOLA prices.
In Eastern Canada, urea prices were reported in a range of C$595-$700/mt FOB, down C$25/mt at the low end of the range.
We believe that urea prices in Western Canada are going to eventually correct to the downside. Our advice again this week is sit and wait.
(Source: Green Markets)
Last week, NOLA urea prices fell slightly to a range of US$284-$291/st from a range of US$285-$295/st the previous week.
This calendar year, urea NOLA prices have had a roller coaster ride through spring. Prices started the year at an average price of US$306/st, peaked at US$396/st on March 15, only to revert to US$288/st last Friday.
(Source: Green Markets)
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW for the eighth week in a row in a range of C$1,135-$1,145/mt. This year, MAP prices in Western Canada have been firm.
In Eastern Canada, MAP prices were down C$10/mt on the low end to C$975-$995/mt FOB, with DAP remaining at C$945/mt FOB Montreal.
MAP NOLA was up 3% on average to a range of US$550-$580/st from the previous week’s US$530-$565/st. This is the fourth week in a row of higher prices WoW at NOLA.
This year MAP NOLA prices took a breather and settled down between March and April only to rebound in May.
Industry Tidbits
- https://www.vietcap.com.vn/en/research-center/urea-sector-lower-urea-price-outlook-in-2024-rebound-in-2025#:~:text=10%20May%202024,price%20by%2019%25%20to%20USD7.
- India’s high pulse target questioned | The Western Producer
- Canada Industrial Relations Board steps into railway labour dispute | The Star Phoenix
- Posthaste: What happened to the Canadian dollar the last time the Bank of Canada and Fed parted ways (yahoo.com)
- Investors reshaped Canadian home real estate. Something similar is happening in agriculture | CBC News
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