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Fertilizer Market Report – November 8, 2023

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Department of Commerce Announces Countervailing Duties on Phosphate Imports

Fertilizer Market Report 2023/11/08

There was interesting and unexpected news from the Department of Commerce (DOC) last week that could possibly impact MAP prices in Western Canada. The DOC announced a steep increase in countervailing duties to Phosagro on its phosphate fertilizers to 28.50% from 9.19% and reduced the duties on Morrocan imports from OCP to 2.12% from 19,97%. We wonder if this will prompt OCP to send more phosphate fertilizers to the US which would make its way to Western Canada. Of course, Mosaic was unhappy with the decision as it could create greater competition in North America against its phosphate fertilizer production as explained in the article below.

News of the Week

Nutrien Study Finds and Quantifies Perception Gap Between Farmers and Consumers

We found this recent Nutrien study interesting as it “details and quantifies the perception gaps between farmers and consumers in North America on issues such as sustainability, technology, and land usage; it also indicates there is some common ground and opportunities for bridge-building.”

Comment from National Bank on CAD

Following up on our discussion last week about the weakness of CAD, the following comment from the National Bank of Canada assumes significance.

“The Canadian dollar has been treading water since last July. The loonie’s slide has been exacerbated by a series of weak economic reports. Market expectations have recently moved in the direction of our forecast of monetary easing. As a result, the CAD is currently facing the double whammy of a widening interest rate differential with the US and weaker commodity prices due to a slowing global economy. We expect USD/CAD to converge towards 1.42 in the coming months. We don’t see much room for CAD appreciation until the second half of 2024.”

North America Urea Last Week  

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$740-C$770/mt DEL.

We heard of an offer of C$760 FOB South Saskatchewan.

Last week urea NOLA price range was up slightly to US$355-$365/st from the previous week’s US$345-$355/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest MAP offers in Western Canada were down slightly WoW to a range of C$1,035-$1,050/mt DEL. The latest MAP NOLA prices were flat WoW in a range of US$600-$640/mt.

Industry Tidbits

• Mosaic – Mosaic Comments on Phosphate Countervailing Duties Rulings
• Net speculative short position in canola tops 100,000 contracts – Grainews
• US Wheat Exports Plunge to 20-Year Low as Mississippi River Dries Up
• Nutrien Warns Against Meddling in Fertilizer Markets
• Bright spot seen in China’s embrace of GM crops

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