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Quick Fire Indian Tender Awakens Urea Market With Global FOB Values Firming 

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Fertilizer Market Report – September 25, 2024 

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In this week’s fertilizer market report: Quick Fire Indian Tender Awakens Urea Market With Global FOB Values Firming; Metro Vancouver Grain Terminal Workers Begin Strike; Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action; and Other Industry Tidbits. 

News of the Week 
The big news of the week was a surprise Indian urea tender which the market did not anticipate. This put a solid foundation under global urea prices. The week beginning Monday September 16, the urea NOLA forward market was pricing in a bid of US$305/st and offer of $315/st from September through Q4 of this year. After the tender was announced the forward urea NOLA market climbed on Tuesday to a bid/offer spread of US$315/st – US$320/st from September through Q4.  

Quick Fire Indian Tender Awakens Urea Market With Global FOB Values Firming 
India’s surprise early-return has ended the malaise that had emerged in many areas of the market. News of the tender midweek spurred a round of fob activity in the east and west with Profercy’s Nitrogen Index subsequently advancing a further 2.63 points. The Index stands at 162.11, returning above 160 points for the first time since March. 

 Quick fire Indian tender awakens urea market with global fob values firming | Profercy 
Source: Profercy Nitrogen 

Metro Vancouver Grain Terminal Workers Begin Strike 
Grain Growers of Canada warns ‘devastating’ work action will cost about $35M daily in lost exports. 

Members of the Grain Workers Union Local 333 headed to picket lines at 7 a.m. PT, three days after serving strike notice, in what one industry group says could be “devastating” job action. 

Both the union and the employer, the Vancouver Terminal Elevators Association (VTEA), say they could not come to an agreement on a new contract.  

The affected facilities are in Vancouver and North Vancouver, and include Viterra’s Cascadia and Pacific Terminals, Richardson International Terminal, Cargill Limited Terminal, G3 Terminal Vancouver and Alliance Grain Terminal, according to the VTEA. 
Metro Vancouver grain terminal workers begin strike | CBC News 

North America Urea Last Week   
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$645-$650/mt. As we progress through harvest in Western Canada, farmers will be looking at fertilizer prices to determine when to begin filling bins.  

Last week, the NOLA urea price range widened to US$308-$323/st from US$311-$322/st the previous week.  

As reported by Direct Hedge, this week started with urea Nola spreads of US$310/st bid and US$320/st offer for September. October was quoted at US$310/st bid and US$320/st offer. November was US$310/st bid and $320/st offer and Q4 was US$310/st bid and US$323/st offer. These spreads were all up WoW due to the surprise Indian tender.   

North America Phosphate Last Week 
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW in a range of C$1,080 – $1,100/mt for the third week in a row. MAP supply remains tight across North America.  

MAP NOLA prices were flat WoW in a range of US$625-$635/st.  

India is starving for DAP. Green Markets reported that India has only about 30 days to cover all of its Rabi season phosphate requirements. With the country being short phosphate with such a short time to cover its needs, prices will likely remain firm. Canada is fully dependent on phosphate imports. This tight supply of phosphates will support prices in Western Canada.  

Industry Tidbits 

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Advisory Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains certain information and statements (“forward-looking statements”) that constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements relate to future results or events, are based upon internal plans, intentions, current expectations and reasonable beliefs, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated or suggested therein. All statements other than statements of current or historical fact constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are typically, but not always, identified by words such as “anticipate”, “assume”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “forecast”, “continue”, “contemplate”, “propose”, “may”, “can”, “will”, “if”, “to be”, “aim”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “believe”, “plan”, “target”, “objective”, “project”, “potential”, “outlook”, “subject to”, “working toward” and similar or other expressions indicating or suggesting future results or events.

Forward-looking statements are not promises of future outcomes. There is no assurance that the results or events indicated or suggested by the forward-looking statements, or the plans, intentions, expectations or beliefs contained therein or upon which they are based, are correct or will in fact occur or be realized (or if they do, what benefits Genesis Fertilizers or limited partners of Genesis Fertilizers may derive therefrom). In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this press release contains forward-looking statements pertaining to: the construction of the Genesis Fertilizer’s fertilizer plant; design options and use of latest technologies available for the fertilizer plant; the fertilizer plant’s products; minimizing emissions from the fertilizer plant and sustainability; the existence and sustainability of any competitive advantage that Genesis Fertilizers may be able to offer; the commercial operations date of the fertilizer plant; and the benefits of the foregoing on the investment of limited partners in Genesis Fertilizers.

The forward-looking statements contained herein reflect management’s current views, but the assessments and assumptions upon which they are based may prove to be incorrect. Although Genesis Fertilizers believes that its underlying assessments and assumptions are reasonable based on currently available information, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements, which are inherently uncertain, depend upon the accuracy of such assessments and assumptions, and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, both general and specific, many of which are beyond Genesis Fertilizers’ control, that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated or suggested in the forward-looking statements. As Genesis Fertilizers is currently in the capital raising phase of the project, such risks and uncertainties are numerous and include, but are not limited to, access to the significant amounts of required capital and debt financing for construction and initial operation of the fertilizer plant and distribution facilities; general economic, business and industry conditions; the state of the economy and the agricultural crop input business; business prospects and opportunities; variance of Genesis Fertilizers’ actual capital costs versus projections and estimates, operating costs and economic returns from those anticipated; the availability of government grants and programs; and risks related to the sourcing of feedstock and the manufacturing of nitrogen fertilizer.

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