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The State and Current Pitfalls of the Fertilizer Market

It’s no secret, the cost, supply and distribution market of fertilizer for Western Canadian farmers is like being on a rollercoaster ride – without the exhilarating feelings.

“The fertilizer market is tied to global supply and demand dynamics, while political and geopolitical factors have added to the complexity of the situation in recent years. At the same time, strong crop prices boosted fertilizer demand that created a gap between global demand and supply. Global supplies currently continue to face a number of challenges, with Europe reducing nitrogen fertilizer production due to high natural gas prices and China restricting exports to secure supply and lower domestic prices,” Azam Nikzad, market analyst/coordinating researcher with the Alberta government ( Alberta Government’s Agri-News issue February 2024).

The Canadian fertilizer supply market can be quite costly for Western Canadian farmers due to several factors.

Global Market Prices

Fertilizer prices are heavily influenced by global market conditions. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and shifts in supply and demand can cause significant price volatility. For example, disruptions in major producing regions or changes in export policies can lead to price spikes.

Input Costs 

The production of fertilizers, particularly nitrogen-based fertilizers, requires substantial energy inputs, primarily natural gas. Fluctuations in energy prices directly impact the cost of fertilizer production, which in turn affects the prices farmers pay.

Transportation Costs

Western Canada’s geographical location means that transportation costs are a significant component of the final price of fertilizers. Shipping fertilizers from production facilities or import terminals to rural farming areas involves substantial logistical expenses.

Currency Exchange Rates

The value of the Canadian dollar against other currencies (especially the U.S. dollar) can affect the cost of imported fertilizers. A weaker Canadian dollar makes imports more expensive, increasing costs for farmers.

Regulatory and Environmental Factors

Compliance with environmental regulations can add to production costs. Additionally, initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions may affect the fertilizer industry, potentially leading to higher prices.

Market Concentration

The fertilizer market in Canada is dominated by a few large companies, such as CF Industries, Nutrien and Yara. Limited competition can lead to less pricing flexibility for farmers.

Despite these cost pressures, farmers rely heavily on fertilizers to maintain crop yields and productivity, making it a significant but necessary expense in their overall production costs. The high cost of fertilizers can affect profit margins, especially in years when crop prices are low. Farmers may seek to mitigate these costs through various strategies, such as optimizing fertilizer use with precision agriculture techniques, participating in cooperative buying groups, and exploring alternative nutrient sources.

Advisory Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains certain information and statements (“forward-looking statements”) that constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements relate to future results or events, are based upon internal plans, intentions, current expectations and reasonable beliefs, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated or suggested therein. All statements other than statements of current or historical fact constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are typically, but not always, identified by words such as “anticipate”, “assume”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “forecast”, “continue”, “contemplate”, “propose”, “may”, “can”, “will”, “if”, “to be”, “aim”, “should”, “could”, “would”, “believe”, “plan”, “target”, “objective”, “project”, “potential”, “outlook”, “subject to”, “working toward” and similar or other expressions indicating or suggesting future results or events.

Forward-looking statements are not promises of future outcomes. There is no assurance that the results or events indicated or suggested by the forward-looking statements, or the plans, intentions, expectations or beliefs contained therein or upon which they are based, are correct or will in fact occur or be realized (or if they do, what benefits Genesis Fertilizers or limited partners of Genesis Fertilizers may derive therefrom). In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this press release contains forward-looking statements pertaining to: the construction of the Genesis Fertilizer’s fertilizer plant; design options and use of latest technologies available for the fertilizer plant; the fertilizer plant’s products; minimizing emissions from the fertilizer plant and sustainability; the existence and sustainability of any competitive advantage that Genesis Fertilizers may be able to offer; the commercial operations date of the fertilizer plant; and the benefits of the foregoing on the investment of limited partners in Genesis Fertilizers.

The forward-looking statements contained herein reflect management’s current views, but the assessments and assumptions upon which they are based may prove to be incorrect. Although Genesis Fertilizers believes that its underlying assessments and assumptions are reasonable based on currently available information, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements, which are inherently uncertain, depend upon the accuracy of such assessments and assumptions, and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, both general and specific, many of which are beyond Genesis Fertilizers’ control, that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those indicated or suggested in the forward-looking statements. As Genesis Fertilizers is currently in the capital raising phase of the project, such risks and uncertainties are numerous and include, but are not limited to, access to the significant amounts of required capital and debt financing for construction and initial operation of the fertilizer plant and distribution facilities; general economic, business and industry conditions; the state of the economy and the agricultural crop input business; business prospects and opportunities; variance of Genesis Fertilizers’ actual capital costs versus projections and estimates, operating costs and economic returns from those anticipated; the availability of government grants and programs; and risks related to the sourcing of feedstock and the manufacturing of nitrogen fertilizer.

This press release is not a solicitation to invest in Genesis Fertilizers.