Fertilizer Market Report – October 11, 2023

Upward Price Trends in Western Canada: Fertilizer Market Report – Oct 11, 2023

We maintain our outlook that fertilizer prices in Western Canada are poised for an upward trajectory. Several factors contribute to this perspective, such as the extended shipping timeline for the recent India urea tender, anticipated restrictions on exports from China, reduced barge movement due to low water levels on the Mississippi, and significantly elevated ammonia prices worldwide. These elements collectively bolster our view on the potential for price increases.


India Urea Tender to Close October 20 for Shipment December 10

The underlying tone of this tender is higher prices due to India needing to secure the required tonnes of at least 1.5m tonnes and China still indicating that it will not allow large urea exports. If you recall, India tendered for over 1m tonnes in its previous tender but received 525,000 tonnes due to a trader offering at low prices, which scared away majority of the supply. The wait for the closing of this most recent tender will likely keep the global market resting on its laurels until traders see tender prices.

Bunge Shareholders Approve the Merger with Viterra

Reuters reported on October 6, that Bunge shareholders approved the merger with Viterra. The closing date is expected in mid-2024, and the signoff from the Canadian government is still required.

North America Urea Last Week  

Urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$765-C$785/mt DEL, according to Green Markets.

Meanwhile, urea prices in Eastern Canada were down slightly to a range of C$695-C$725/mt, from the previous week’s C$705-C$770/mt; while urea NOLA price range tightened to US$380-US$405/st from the previous week’s US$370-US$420/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest MAP offers in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$1,035-C$1,050/mt DEL.

MAP pricing was reported by Green Markets at C$880-$915/mt FOB in Eastern Canada.

The latest MAP NOLA prices were quoted at US$615-US$650/st FOB, flat WoW.

Industry Tidbits