Fertilizer Market Report – March 27, 2024 

Rosenberg Urges Action to Macklem, USD/CAD Insights, Fertilizer Market Updates

In this week’s fertilizer report: David Rosenberg calls for action by Bank of Canada; USD/CAD chart tells a story; North American urea and MAP prices; and industry tidbits.

News of the Week: Fertilizer Market Report

David Rosenberg’s Note to Tiff Macklem — Don’t Make Another Mistake in the Other Direction

In this great article esteemed economist David Rosenberg suggests Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem should consider cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. Rosenberg explains that this is the most punitive real interest rate since 2008 and that the Bank of Canada should not wait until summer to reduce rates. He believes that the Bank of Canada does not need to wait for the US Fed to reduce rates. In his opinion, the BOC can act on its own. We tend to agree.

USD/CAD – Chart Speaks Volumes

Every farmer/producer in Canada should be watching the USD vs CAD rates because most ag inputs are purchased in USD and imported but paid for by producers in CAD. Canada is stuck in a situation in which it needs to reduce real interest rates but if it does act aggressively before the US Fed, the CAD will suffer


North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were up WoW to a range of C$770-$780/mt from C$750-$765/mt DEL the previous week. These prices are up C$110/mt or 17% since the recent trough of C$665/mt seen in early January.

Offers are still at C$800/mt for prompt and May at C$830/mt FOB Gravelbourg SK.

NOLA urea prices fell to a range of US$354-$406/st from the previous week’s range of US$375-$417/st. First week of April traded at US$390/st FOB but full month April then traded down to US$342-$352/st.  

We have been saying that we believe that prices in Western Canada could pop again once spring seeding starts. This seems to be the case.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were up WoW in Western Canada to a range of C$1,140-$1,145/mt from the previous week’s C$1,120-$1,130/mt. MAP prices have risen 40% since early July 2023 in Western Canada.

We heard again of two MAP offers in Southern SK at C$1,165/mt for prompt and C$1,190 for Spring FOB.

MAP barges were firm with prices unchanged at the week-ago US$620-US$640/st FOB level. According to Green Markets, prompt and loaded product was priced at the top of the range for both DAP and MAP.

We are hearing that MAP supply is very tight in North America.


Industry Tidbits