Fertilizer Market Report – February 1, 2024

NOLA vs. Western Canada Urea Prices, North American Urea and MAP Trends

Fertilizer Market Report 2024/02/01 | In this week’s fertilizer market report: Revisit the spread between NOLA and Western Canada urea prices, North American Urea and MAP prices, and industry tidbits.

News of the Week: Fertilizer Market Report

Spread Between Urea Western Canada prices and NOLA urea prices

We like to follow the spread between Urea Western Canada Delivered prices and Urea NOLA adjusted for units of measure (short tons to metric tonnes) and quoted in Canadian Dollars. Last Friday marked the fourth week in a row that urea NOLA increased and the second week in a row that urea Western Canada prices did not change. This spread should roughly equal the price of urea at NOLA plus freight to Western Canada. We are close to that now after this most recent drop in the spread from roughly C$307/mt on November 24 to C$166/mt last Friday. The five-year average spread is C$168/mt. This indicates to us that if NOLA urea prices continue to rise, Western Canada will likely see higher prices going into spring.

if NOLA urea prices  western canada

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices were flat in a range of C$660-$685/mt in Western Canada.

In Eastern Canada, urea prices fell on the low end to a range of C$645-$725/MT FOB from C$680/mt FOB.

On August 2, 2023, we wrote: Finally time to change our tune on fertilizers in Western Canada. If you have storage, we recommend you start inching into the urea and phosphate market. The theme being tight supplies globally are supporting prices as explained throughout this newsletter.

So NOLA urea is showing higher prices again week-over-week rising to a range of US$337-$345/st, up from the previous week’s US$325-$335/st. In the past four weeks, NOLA urea prices have risen by 13.7% due to stronger global markets.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were flat week-over-week in a range of C$1,080-$1,085/mt.

We are still worried about import supply issues into Western Canada. Again, we recommend you fill your bins rather than wait for spot prices in the spring delivery season.

MAP NOLA prices were flat week-over-week in a range of US$625-$630/mt.

Industry Tidbits