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Fertilizer Market Report – August 7, 2024
Looming Rail Strike Had Shippers Bracing for Worst
In this week’s fertilizer report:
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- Looming Rail Strike Has Canadian Shippers Bracing for Worst
- Non-Commercial Traders Have Sold Futures in Eight of the Past Ten Weeks
- USD/CAD to Rise Above 1.40 in the Coming Months – NBC
- North America Urea and Phosphate action Last Week
- Industry Tidbits
News of the Week
Looming Rail Strike Has Canadian Shippers Bracing for Worst: ‘Nothing Moves’
This strike could impact fertilizer movement, especially phosphates of which Canada is fully reliant on imports.
“The railways are two ribbons that go east to west, and there’s not much alternative if you cut those two ribbons,” said John Corey, president of the Freight Management Association of Canada, whose members include port authorities, manufacturers and other large shippers such as retailers Canadian Tire and Home Depot. “The ports become useless. Nothing moves anywhere.”
Non-Commercial Traders Have Sold Futures in Eight of the Past Ten Weeks
Is this potentially teeing up another short squeeze?
USD/CAD to Rise Above 1.40 in the Coming Months – NBC
“For the second time in as many meetings, the Bank of Canada lowered the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points in July. Driving the decision to cut was ‘broad price pressures continuing to ease’ and ‘ongoing excess supply lowering inflationary pressures’.
“In our view, a soft landing scenario for the Canadian economy is not a foregone conclusion. If incoming data soften more in line with our outlook, there will be a strong case for another cut in September.”
USD/CAD to rise above 1.40 in the coming months – NBC (fxstreet.com)
North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were C$640 delivered which was flat WoW.
Urea in Eastern Canada was unchanged at C$592-$700/mt FOB in early August.
Last week, NOLA urea prices were up slightly to a range of US$307-$317/st from US$305-$315/st the previous week.
According to Direct Hedge, this week started with urea Nola spreads of US$300/st bid and US$310/st offer for August and US$305/st bid and US$315/st offer for September. Q4 is US$305/st bid and US$320/st offer. All of these are down roughly US$5/st WoW. The NOLA market continues to lack direction.
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP price range was flat WoW at C$1,050 – $1,060. MAP supply is reportedly very tight in North America.
MAP in Eastern Canada increase to C$980-$995/mt FOB, up C$25/mt at the low end of the range, with DAP up to C$960/mt FOB Montreal, above the previous week’s C$925/mt FOB level.
MAP NOLA was also flat WoW in a range of US$635 – $645/st.
Industry Tidbits
- Southern Alberta crops faring better than average | Lethbridge News Now
- 5 factors that could move grain prices (farmprogress.com)
- Cropland Values Average $5,570 Per Acre, USDA Land Summary Report Says (dtnpf.com)
- Bunge delays completion of US$8.2 billion Viterra acquisition – BNN Bloomberg
- VIDEO: ‘Outside markets’ weigh on ag prices | The Western Producer
