Fertilizer Market Report – February 14, 2024

Key Insights on the Loonie’s Value, Century-Long Prairie Farmland Trends, and Fertilizer Prices

Fertilizer Market Report 2024/02/014 | In this week’s fertilizer report: The loonie’s value depends on the timing of interest rate declines, a hundred years of prairie farmland prices, North American urea and MAP prices, and industry tidbits

News of the Week: Fertilizer Market Report

Loonie’s value depends on the timing of interest rate declines

There was an interesting article in The Western Producer explaining how our loonie’s value will hinge on when the Bank of Canada decides to begin easing interest rates. One train of thought among economists is that the US will possibly wait to begin lowering interest rates. If Canada begins to reduce interest rates before the US, money flows could favour that country resulting in a stronger US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar.

The fact that both economies continue to grow means that inflation pressure is still a factor and so banks might be cautious about lowering rates too soon.

A hundred years of Prairie farmland prices

Following the above article on interest rates and the Canadian dollar, this article in Grain News explains how land prices in western Canada are influenced by interest rates. The graph below gives a nice illustration of how land prices have moved through history in Western Canada.

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada rose to a range of C$720-$765/mt DEL from C$660-$685/mt the previous week. That’s an increase of 10.4% WoW.

NOLA urea price range tightened to US$345-$350/st from a range of US$345-$355/st the previous week.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were stronger in Western Canada in a range of C$1,120-$1,130/mt, up from C$1,080-$1,085/mt the previous week. MAP prices have risen 38% since early July 2023 in Western Canada.

We are however still worried about import supply issues into Western Canada. Again, we recommend you fill your bins rather than wait for spot prices in the spring delivery season.

MAP NOLA prices were flat WoW in a range of US$600-$630/st.

Industry Tidbits