Fertilizer Market Report – November 22, 2023

Impact of Chinese Fertilizer Export Ban and Canadian Carbon Tax Standstill

Fertilizer Market Report 2023/11/22 | Interesting article from Profercy explaining the Chinese ban of fertilizer exports which we commented on in last week’s report. China is a major player in shaping urea prices globally, and its export policies impact the market.

The Chinese Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association issued a communique to domestic producers telling them to give priority to domestic supply rather than exports. The market has not reacted to this yet because Chinese exports typically slow going into Q1. It is a topic that we will keep an eye on as we go into the Canadian planting season.

News of the Week

Canadian farmers will continue to pay carbon tax on grain drying and building and heating after the progression of Bill C-234 came to a standstill in the Senate following Sen. Bernadette Clement’s motion to adjourn the bill’s debate during its third reading last week. With the Senate not convening again until Nov. 21, farmers are left in a position where they will persist in bearing the burden of the carbon tax on grain drying and building heating and cooling. According to the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s report, scrapping the carbon tax could potentially save farmers nearly $1 billion by 2030.

North America Urea Last Week  

According to Green Markets, the urea price lows and highs in Western Canada remained in a range of C$750-C$760/mt DEL. We are seeing terminal offers at C$735/mt FOB near Regina and C$760/mt in North Battleford.

Urea prices in Eastern Canada fell to C$710-$725/mt FOB in mid-November, down from the previous high of C$745/mt FOB in late October. Our view is that the market is trying to find a support level. Ontario, Canada is experiencing what some are calling a record corn harvest which should, in our view, support urea prices in Eastern Canada. Farmers will need to reload for spring 2024.

Last week, urea NOLA fell again to a range of US$323-US$335/st from the previous week’s range of US$340-$350/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest MAP offers in Western Canada were higher last week to a range of C$1,050-$1,060/mt DEL, up from the previous week’s C$1,035-$1,050/mt DEL.

In Eastern Canada, MAP prices were firm WoW in a  broad range at C$905-$985/mt FOB.

The NOLA phosphate market is slow. There was little barge activity in MAP which left prices unchanged WoW in a range of US$600-$630/st.

Industry Tidbits