Fertilizer Market Report – February 8, 2024

Global Urea Prices Surge 20%; NOLA vs. Western Canada Spread, North American Urea and MAP Rates

Fertilizer Market Report 2024/02/08 |In this week’s fertilizer market report: Global urea prices rally 20% since beginning of year, revisit the spread between NOLA and Western Canada urea prices, North American Urea and MAP prices, and Industry Tidbits.

News of the Week: Fertilizer Market Report

Global urea producers comfortable as prices rally 20% since turn of year

Interesting insight from Profercy explaining how a supply squeeze, short covering and strong demand are elevating global urea prices. The Profercy World Nitrogen Index increased by 15.69 points over the course of January to 158.71 points. Further gains were witnessed last week.

Spread Between Urea Western Canada prices and NOLA Urea Prices

We are focusing on the spread between Western Canada and NOLA urea prices since January 2022. The spread has fallen to C$150/mt on NOLA prices increasing at a faster rate than Canadian prices over the last five weeks. Last week we wrote that we believe that urea prices in Western Canada are likely to increase going into the spring season. We understand that retail prices in southern Saskatchewan jumped to close to C$800/mt from an average of C$673/mt early this week.

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices were flat in a range of C$660-$685/mt in Western Canada. We are hearing of urea price jump to C$800/mt in Saskatchewan this week. A retailer outside of Regina posted C$730/mt.

Again, we recommend filling those bins.

NOLA urea showed higher prices again week-over-week for the fifth week in a row, rising to a range of US$345-$355/st, up from the previous week’s US$337-$345/st. In the past five weeks, NOLA urea prices have risen by 17% due to stronger global markets.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were flat week-over-week in a range of C$1,080-$1,085/mt. This is the third week in a row with no movement in MAP prices in Western Canada.

We are however still worried about import supply issues into Western Canada. Again, we recommend you fill your bins rather than wait for spot prices in the spring delivery season.

MAP NOLA prices were down slightly on the low end week-over-week in a range of US$600-$630/st versus US$625/$630/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits