Fertilizer Market Report – June 28, 2023

Tampa Ammonia Falls to US$285/mt CFR for July

The Tampa ammonia price for July fell to US$285/mt CFR, off US$55/mt from June’s US$340/mt CFR. Most industry sources had been expecting another drop to US$300/mt CFR, citing lower natural gas prices in Europe; so this comes in as a bit of surprise to the downside.

This is significantly lower than the peak price of US$1,425/mt seen on April 22, 2022.

There is no reason to believe that urea price will find support at these levels as ammonia is the feedstock for urea.

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, Urea pricing in Western Canada was flat week-over-week at C$547/mt – C$700/mt.

Eastern Canada urea slipped to a broad C$635-C$850/mt FOB in mid-June, depending on location and supplier, down C$40/mt at the low end of the range.

NOLA urea barge prices were up from last week, with prompt, loaded barges remaining at a premium. June barge trades were quoted in a wide range at US$297-US$330/st FOB during the week, with July reported at US$275-US$295/st FOB NOLA. Those levels were up from last week’s broad US$245-US$320/st FOB range.

North America Phosphate Last Week

The MAP market in Western Canada was quoted at C$850-C$860/mt FOB for June offers, which was flat week over week.

MAP prices in Eastern Canada were unchanged at C$1,049-C$1,260/mt FOB, depending on location and supplier. DAP remained at the C$1,038/mt FOB level in Montreal.

Players reported firming in the NOLA DAP and MAP barge markets.

Early-week trades for imported DAP tons were heard at US$442/st FOB, while open offers lifted to US$448/st FOB by midweek. Domestically produced barges loading in late June or first-half July were quoted trading in a US$445-US$455/st FOB range, rising from the prior US$445/st FOB top.

After weeks of minimal trading, domestic producers reported June and first-half July MAP barges changing hands at as high as US$475/st FOB, up US$5/st from the recent US$470/st FOB ceiling. Early-week trades for imported tons were noted at a US$460/st FOB floor, above last week’s US$450/st FOB. Nearby offers climbed to US$480-US$500/st FOB late in the week, while barges loading in September were confirmed trading at US$485/st FOB on June 22.

Players pointed to tightening MAP supply as contributing to the higher values. A number of Russian MAP cargoes were reportedly diverted to Brazil in recent weeks ahead of a possible increase in countervailing duty rates in the US.

Based on reported trades, the nearby DAP market firmed to US$442-US$455/st FOB, rising from US$440-US$445/st FOB at last check. MAP barges loading from NOLA lifted to US$460-US$475/st FOB from the week-ago US$450-US$470/st FOB.

Green Markets Global Macro Comments – Indian Tender Takes Center Stage Again

India

State-owned Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) awarded only 560,000 mt in its tender. The company had hoped to receive a minimum of 800,000 mt. Sources said the limited tonnage was mostly a result of Chinese producers unwilling to accept the netbacks from the tender’s US$280-US$285/CFR price, as well as a short shipping window that required vessels to be loaded by July 17.

The lack of Chinese urea in the tender was evident in the final numbers. Only 95,000 mt will be delivered to India’s East Coast. The remaining 465,000 mt will be sent to ports on the West Coast. The bulk of the awards will be covered by Arab Gulf producers.

There are now expectations that a new tender will be called as early as around July 10-15. Sources said this timeframe will allow for all of the awarded tons to have vessels nominated and be in the last steps of loading for shipment, thus preventing suppliers the opportunity to withdraw their tons in the hopes of gaining a better netback in the next tender.

Chinese urea is expected to play a bigger role in the next tender, as the Chinese domestic season will end on June 30, leaving producers looking for markets for their product. As long as pricing remain strong in China’s current domestic market, producers had no reason to accept lower levels from the export market. After July 1, the domestic market’s prices are expected to come off.

Middle East

Egyptian producers continue to push for – and get – higher prices. The week opened with sales at US$312/mt FOB and ended at US$340/mt FOB. Many of the sales were for multiple cargoes of about 5,000 mt. However, MOPCO and Abu Qir were able to secure deals involving 10,000 mt each as the price edged upward. As the week closed, Abu Qir sold 15,000 mt of granular at US$340/mt FOB. In another deal, the same company sold 20,000 mt of prilled urea at US$322/mt FOB.

Brazil

The Brazil market reacted to the inability of RCF/India to achieve its 800,000 mt purchase goal, jumping to US$300-US$320/mt CFR, a roughly 12% increase from the previous week. Even Iranian material was offered at levels higher than non-sanctioned product from last week. Sources said a trader offered Iranian product at US$290/mt CFR into a market with limited buying interest.

China

Export prices are expected to begin coming off on July 1, when the domestic season closes. So far, Chinese producers have been able to get better prices from the local market than from exporting tons. The strong demand for the domestic top-off season allowed producers to reject the lower prices available from the RCF/India tender. The absence of that safety net means that producers will have to either accept the price from India, or risk building up large reserves in their warehouses with limited selling opportunities.

Industry Tidbits

• Vanguard Crop Nutrition Inc. (VCN), a Canadian producer of specialty fertilizer, confirmed on June 14 that it has begun construction on a compound fertilizer manufacturing facility in Maitland, Ont. The manufacturing site is located near the St. Lawrence Seaway, Highway 401, and mainline rail, and is targeted to open in 2024 with a 25 mt/h production capacity.
• Transshipments of Belarusian potash through Russian ports may increase to 8.4 million mt this year, up from the 3 million mt in 2022, according to an Interfax report on June 19, citing Russian Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev. According to Savelyev, more than 4 million mt of Belarusian potash has been transported since the start of 2023.
• Prairie farmers are sitting on 4.7 tonnes of last year’s canola and may wonder how high temperatures are affecting their binned oilseed, The Western Producer
• The federal government is adopting a new way to manage pesticides, which seems to give a larger role in Environment and Climate Change Canada, according to The Western Producer.