Fertilizer Market Report – May 28, 2025
Western Canada, NOLA Urea Spread Blows Out Again
In this week’s fertilizer report: Western Canada, NOLA Urea Spread Blows Out Again after Western Canada Price Jumps; Global Phosphate Market Snapshot – May 2025 and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Price Action.
News of the Week
Things have gotten interesting again in the global urea market. The EU imposed additional tariffs on Belarus and Russian fertilizer imports. In Egypt, natural gas restrictions have forced urea producers to curtail production. China is expected to begin exporting soon but prices have risen, making domestic purchases more expensive which could impact export volumes. China prioritizes cheaper domestic supply over exports. In addition, India is expected to return to market with another tender as all freight has been allocated for the last tender.
Western Canada, NOLA Urea Spread Blows Out Again after Western Canada Price Jumps
Urea is tight at retail in Western Canada, which pushed prices up significantly. At the same time, NOLA prices dropped two weeks in a row. This combination blew the measurement-and-currency adjusted spread between the two indices out to levels not seen this time last year. At this time, we are more inclined to believe that Western Canadian urea prices will correct rather than NOLA prices increasing. Recommend sitting and waiting in Western Canada.
Global Phosphate Market Snapshot – May 2025
The following commentary from Chemical Products Trader, Siamand Sheikhi, is a concise overview of the global phosphate market by country.
As the global fertilizer markets navigate through tight supply and shifting geopolitics, phosphate prices have once again firmed, driven by seasonal demand, supply bottlenecks, and policy shifts.
30–60 Day Outlook: Despite signs of a Chinese export return, global availability remains tight, and prices are likely to hold firm as major markets complete seasonal coverage. Inertia may follow, but no major softening is expected in the near term.
(Source: Siamand Sheikhi)
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North America Urea Last Week
NOLA urea prices have been on a wild ride lately and the volatility continued last week due to China re-entering the export market.
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada jumped a significant 11.4% to C$1,000 from a range of C$880-$915/mt the previous week. This made urea in Western Canada significantly more expensive than NOLA on a relative basis.
Urea NOLA prices were quite weak for the second consecutive week, down 8.2% last week to a wide range of US$410-$530/st versus US$460-$562/st the previous week.
Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: May was bid/offer US$440/$448/st, June was bid/offer US$360/$380/st. July was bid/offer US$350/$360/st and Q3 was bid/offer US$355/$360/st.
North America Phosphate Last Week
The phosphate market is tight largely due to China’s lack of export volume. It is expected to remain tight as China’s expected volume is expected to be half of historical averages.
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW in a range of C$1,160-$1,260/mt for the fourth week in a row.
MAP NOLA prices increased 5.5% to a range of US$690-$715/st from US$655-$677/st the previous week.
Industry Tidbits
