Fertilizer Market Report – March 14, 2025
Urea Western Canada Minus Urea NOLA Spread Blowing Out
News of the Week
Urea Western Canada Minus Urea NOLA Spread Blowing Out on NOLA Weakness
Over the last three weeks urea Western Canada prices have risen 5.5% while urea NOLA prices have dropped 8.2%. This has blown out the spread that we like to follow (below) to C$253/mt, well over the five-year average of C$185/mt. What does this mean for Canadian urea price? Hard to tell at this point because the NOLA market is weak on the absence of Indian tenders which was expected by now. 
February Urea Western Canada Average Price Remained Elevated
We have urea prices back to 2012. This February, average Urea Western Canada DEL price was the second highest average February price since 2012. This is potentially a reset to a new higher price level for Western Canada.
(Source: Green Markets)
North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW at C$860/mt. Canada’s delivered urea price is lagging behind the weakness in NOLA prices experienced over the last three weeks which has inflated the spread between the two indices as displayed in the chart above.
We heard of a urea delivered offer price of C$889/mt in southern Saskatchewan.
Urea NOLA prices ended last week down another 2.8% WoW, in a range of US$378-$388/st from US$385-$403/st the previous week. Urea NOLA prices are down 8.2% over the last three weeks due to India being absent from the market.
Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: March was bid US$380 and offered $385/st. April was bid/offer US$375/$305/st. May was bid/offer US$350/$360/st. Q2 was bid/offer US$350/$360/st.
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was flat WoW in a range of C$1,135-$1,155/mt. MAP inventory is still reportedly quite tight in North America.
We heard of a delivered MAP offer price of C$1,219/mt in southern Saskatchewan.
In Eastern Canada, MAP prices were flat at C$1,065-$1,080/mt FOB.
MAP NOLA prices were up on the low end of the range WoW to a range US$605-$615/st from US$595-$615/st the previous week.
MAP prices in North America have been worrisome for a while. Globally, supply is tight and reportedly prices in Europe are rising due to constrained supply.
Industry Tidbits
