Fertilizer Market Report – April 2, 2025

Fertilizer Market Report – April 02, 2025
In this week’s fertilizer report: Urea Western Canada DEL Prices Remained Elevated in March; Spread Between Urea Western Canada and Urea NOLA Widened Again; US Pledges to Help Secure Trade Routes Under Russia, Ukraine Black Sea Deal; and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Price Action.

News of the Week
India Potash Limited issued the long-awaited urea tender for 1.5m tonnes of a combination of prilled and granular urea. The tender closes on April 8 with cargoes to be loaded by June 12.

Urea Western Canada DEL Prices Remained Elevated in March
The average Western Canada DEL price in March was 12% higher than March 2024. First quarter average price was up 13% from Q1 2024. March 2025 was the second highest March average price since 2012.

(Source: Green Markets)

Spread Between Urea Western Canada and Urea NOLA Widened Again
Last week we indicated that the widening spread between Urea Western Canada and Urea NOLA has us leaning toward the risk of Western Canada prices falling rather than NOLA increasing substantially. Western Canada prices were flat again WoW while NOLA prices were down another 4% week WoW.

The Indian tender announced on March 25 put a pin under Urea NOLA prices but could be short lived if China opens exports and Russian trade flows are secured under a Russia, Ukraine Black Sea Deal as per below.

US Pledges to Help Secure Trade Routes Under Russia, Ukraine Black Sea Deal
The US has said it will help ensure safe navigation through the Black Sea — a key trade route for grain and fertilizers — and limit attacks on energy infrastructure following separate talks with Russia and Ukraine in Riyadh and amid continuing disruption to shipping markets.

(Source: S&P Global)

US pledges to help secure trade routes under Russia, Ukraine Black Sea deal
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/032525-us-pledges-to-help-secure-trade-routes-under-russia-ukraine-black-sea-deal

North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW at C$860/mt for the fifth week in a row. Canada’s delivered urea price is lagging the weakness in NOLA prices.

Urea NOLA prices were weak again last week down to a range of US$355-$372/st versus US$373-$384/st the previous week. Urea NOLA average prices are down 12.8% over the last six weeks however prices began to rebound last Friday after Green Markets reported week ending prices due to India returning to the urea market with a tender.

Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: March was bid US$375 and offered $382/st. April was bid/offer US$360/$370/st. May was bid/offer US$345/$355/st. Q2 was bid/offer US$345/$360/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was up WoW on the high end of the range to C$1,135-$1,165/mt from C$1,135-$1,155/mt. MAP in Western Canada is the fertilizer that has us worried. The global pipeline is tight. Add to that reported freight issues causing strain on supply. January 2025 average MAP Western Canada price was $50/mt higher than January 2024 and February 2025 was $15 higher than February 2024. Another week of these inflated prices and March average Western Canada MAP price will be higher YoY also.

MAP NOLA prices were up WoW to US$610/st from US$605-$610/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits
• Canada should increase canola consumption | The Western Producer
• Spring wheat protein premiums non-existent | The Western Producer
• NOAA Outlook Calls for Deepening Western Corn Belt Drought
• Tariffs won’t just hit your wallet. They could also increase food waste. | Grist
• Tariff Risks Outrunning Demand Support: BI Agriculture Monthly: Post | LinkedIn
• Canola tariffs hit hard as AgriStability program falls short: Sask Oilseeds | paNOW
• USDA Projects 95.3M Acres Corn, 83.5M Acres Soybeans