Fertilizer Market Report – May 1, 2024


Urea Prices Test 2023 Lows as China Weighs Return to Global Market

Quote of the week from a local Saskatchewan farmer: “Canola C$650/mt, Urea C$730/mt – that math doesn’t work.”

Another great article from Profercy explains why global urea prices are nearing the lows seen in 2023. We are seeing increasing supply combined with decreasing demand and confusion surrounding China’s export policies. We are also nearing the low import demand season of June through August which will keep the market guessing.

Did Wheat Prices Just Turn Bullish?

Last week we wrote “Weak demand, big supply and the strong US dollar are prompting funds to continue to short the Ag complex. Watch for short covering.”

This week, DTN’s Lead Analyst Todd Hultman wrote a piece explaining the short covering that is driving wheat prices higher. There seems to be wheat supply issues in India and weather issues in Europe, parts of the U.S. and Canada.

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW at C$780/mt DEL. This is the third week in a row with no price movement.

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Eastern Canada fell by C$20/mt on the low end to a range of C$620-$725/mt.

Last week, NOLA urea prices gained slightly to a range of US$288-$315/st from the previous week’s range of US$287-$311/st.

We believe that urea prices in Western Canada are going to eventually correct to the downside. Our advice? Sit and wait.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW in a range of C$1,135-$1,145/mt. This is the third week in a row with flat prices.

MAP NOLA was flat WoW in a range of US$480-$485/mt.

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