Fertilizer Market Report – February 19, 2025

In this week’s fertilizer report: Urea NOLA Futures Curve Jumps Again; Some Reprieve for the CAD; How Strong Will the Canadian Dollar Be in 2025?; and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Price Action.

News of the Week
Urea NOLA Futures Curve Jumps Again
As you know, we like to keep track of the Urea NOLA futures curve to understand what the market believes about prices for the next few months. The chart below shows the increase in futures prices from late January until this past Tuesday morning. Urea NOLA prices had to rise to attract tons for the spring demand season. This bullishness in the US is bound to support urea prices in Western Canada through the spring.

(Source: CME)

Tuesday morning, however, Urea NOLA experienced some capitulation from traders who are long March Urea. We saw physical offers starting at US$418/st, then $415, $414, $413 and US$408/st. Bids are around US$395/st. According to our sources, these sellers were expecting India to re-tender sooner. It has not happened therefore they are nervous about being long March. 

Some Reprieve for the CAD
We have had some reprieve for the CAD in the last nine days from its peak of 1.4603 USD/CAD reached on February 3, 2025. Can this CAD strength continue? 

Below is an interesting article from Disruption Banking explaining some history of the USD/CAD and providing a forecast of the outlook for 2025.

How Strong Will the Canadian Dollar Be in 2025?
“Due to the continued uncertainty in Canada, it is unlikely that the Canadian dollar will strengthen against the U.S. dollar in the short-term. Options and futures markets in January showed increased concerns of future depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
Before the end of the year ING’s analysts had suggested a $0.66 level for the Canadian dollar. If the trade conflict did escalate. In the more recent Currency Report Card from Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, the outcome is more positive with a long term $0.71 level suggested towards the end of 2025.
April 2nd will be a key date here when Trump will be nearer to finalizing his trade policy. It is the period leading up to that day which will continue to be filled with uncertainty. However, as has been seen already by the ‘loonie’ (the familiar name for the Canadian dollar), it has done well to maintain its levels over the last few weeks.”
(Source: Disruptionbanking.com)
How Strong Will the Canadian Dollar Be in 2025? | Disruption Banking

North America Urea Last Week  
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$800-$830/mt. 

Urea NOLA prices ended last week up another 5.6% WoW, after rising 3.5% the previous week. Urea NOLA ended last week in a range of US$411-$423/st, from a range of US$386-$404/st, the previous week. Urea NOLA has risen 14.1% in the last three weeks. We have been expecting urea NOLA price over $400 heading into spring planting. These urea NOLA prices are the highest since September 2023.

Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: February was bid US$400 and offered $410/st. March was bid/offer US$410/$420/st. April was bid/offer US$400/$410/st. May was bid/offer US$360/$380/st. 

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was flat WoW in a range of C$1,120-$1,140/mt for the second week in a row. MAP inventory is reportedly quite tight in North America.

MAP NOLA prices, however, were up another 3% WoW to a range of US$600-$605/st from US$585-$595/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits 
•    Tariff threats endanger Canada’s largest canola market | The Western Producer
•    Producer Profit Margins to Stay Below Average in 2025-26: FCC | Farms.com
•    The Spring Fertilizer Outlook: Considering ‘Forks in the Road’ for Application Demand – CropLife
•    Tariff Threats and US Fertilizer Imports – farmdoc daily