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Fertilizer Market Report – February 12, 2025

TFI Annual Business Conference Bullish Environment

Fertilizer Market Report – February 12, 2025 
In this week’s fertilizer report: TFI Annual Business Conference Bullish Environment; Indian Tender Volume Indicates Another Tender is Imminent; Commentary from Matt Bohan – Fertilizer Trader with Vast Experience; Yara Q4 Results Outlook; and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action.

News of the Week
TFI Annual Business Conference Bullish Environment
The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) Annual Business Conference was held this week in Palm Springs CA. First thing Tuesday morning, Urea NOLA March swaps were bid US$415 and offered $425/st. Mid morning, February physical urea traded US$417/st and March physical urea traded US$420/st and US$422/st. Urea is quite bullish going into the spring season due to low imported volume into the US thus far this year combined with expectation of another Indian urea tender soon. As we have been writing, Urea NOLA prices had to rise to attract tons for the spring demand season. This bullishness in the US is bound to support urea prices in Western Canada through the spring.

Indian Tender Volume Indicates Another Tender is Imminent
The Indian tender closed with volumes much lower than required. Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) secured 555,900mt vs. the required 1.5mmt. This has the market speculating that India will call another tender soon which is supporting global prices. This, at that same time as the undersupplied US market is entering demand season. 

Commentary from Matt Bohan – Fertilizer Trader with Vast Experience
It has been nearly two months since my last post and the market has moved up +/- $ 70 / ST FOB NOLA urea barge. The question then becomes where does it go from here? If one knew nothing about the market, the conclusion would be there’s a 50/50 chance of up or down. The US appears to be +/- 500k MT behind on imports, so that’s a positive. But the bigger question is how hard does it have to work to attract those imports? Brazil during the past two months has moved up +/- $ 60 / MT and there are reports of some spot vessel being diverted from Brazil to the US. My feeling is, Brazil is still priced competitively enough to prevent a flood of imports into the US. History appears to show that capitulation of Brazilian buying due to high prices in the US and/or desperation buying in the US are needed to finally allow the US to attract the tons needed for this Spring season. So, there is more upside but, the amount is dependent on Brazil’s desire to stay in the game. Think globally and trade locally. Happy Wednesday!
(Source: LinkedIn)

Yara Q4 Results Outlook
Yara reiterates the global issues which are expected to continue to support global urea prices near term. We believe that North American urea prices could go higher as the US tries to attract import tons. 

“Similarly to last year, Northern hemisphere deliveries are lagging, with a continued just-in-time buying trend for the first half of the season. In addition, Indian stock levels are lower than at the start of the season, due to strong domestic sales and reduced imports. Combined with the absence of Chinese exports, this has created a fundamentally strong urea market entering into first half of 2025. On the supply side, Chinese export policy remains a key uncertainty factor. However, the peak of capacity additions ex. China has passed, with industry consultant projections showing supply growth from 2025 and onwards significantly below trend consumption growth. Combined with strong demand fundamentals, this indicates a tightening global supply-demand balance in the coming years.”
(Source: Yara Q4 2024 Financial Results)
Yara Q4 Results

North America Urea Last Week  
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada rose 3.2% WoW to a range of C$800-$830/mt from a range of C$780-$800/mt the previous week. 

Urea NOLA prices ended last week up another 3.5% WoW, after rising 4.4% the previous week. Urea NOLA ended last week in a range of US$386-$404/st, from a range of US$378-$385/st, the previous week. We have been expecting urea NOLA prices over $400 heading into spring planting. Last week February traded at US$404/st and March traded up to $410/st. 

Falcon Commodities framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: February was bid US$398 and offered $410/st. March was bid/offer US$410/$415/st. April was bid/offer US$402/$420/st. May was bid/offer US$368/$380/st. 

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was higher on the low end of the range WoW at C$1,120-$1,140/mt from C$1,115-$1,140 the previous week. MAP inventory is reportedly quite tight in North America.

MAP NOLA prices were up WoW to a range to US$585-$590/st from US$580/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits 

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