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Fertilizer Market Report – January 22, 2025

Stone X Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update

In this week’s fertilizer report: Stone X Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update from January 14th; CRU’s Top Fertilizer Calls for 2025; Supplies Tighten for Phosphate, Urea; USD/CAD Spikes to Fresh Monthly High as Trump Prepares Canada Tariff; and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action.

News of the Week

Stone X Mid-Day Fertilizer Market Update from January 14th

This daily update from last week, written by Josh Linville at StoneX, does a great job of explaining why he believes that nitrogen in North America is in a bad spot heading into the spring season. One of the main issues facing North America is the weak urea imports through November 2024, which puts pressure on buyers to get vessels moving. NOLA urea prices are discounted to the rest of the world and as you know, exporters sell to best price so NOLA prices will have to rise to attract tons.

  • NOLA urea is STILL a solid discount to global replacement
    • March NOLA urea traded $372 this morning
    • Middle East futures continue to trade around mid-$370s
    • That means NOLA is still a discount by a couple dollars
    • However, my question continues to be if the world is so tight, why would it consider N.A. as a destination at any sort of a discount?
    • And, if $372 NOLA is still a slight discount, will we see it push to a $20+ premium to call on tons?
    • Again, we could be looking at NOLA urea starting with a 4 very soon…
  • None of this is highly surprising unfortunately
    • It looked like it was more a matter of when, not if
  • I also still have my worries about phosphate going higher…especially if corn acres increase
    • But we haven’t seen that much price movement with the focus being on nitrogen

(Source: Josh Linville, StoneX)
https://www.stonex.com/en/market-intelligence/fertilizers/202501141827/01142025-mid-day-fertilizer-market-update/

CRU’s Top Fertilizer Calls for 2025
Within CRU’s top fertilizer calls for 2025, the most important for Canadian producers, in our view, is the outlook for phosphate prices calling for heightened prices over the next two years.

  • Phosphate incentive pricing to spur investment: Granular phosphate prices are so high at present they have now intersected our long-run marginal cost (LRMC) for DAP. DAP prices are now high enough to cover not just operating costs but all also the recovery of capex suspended on a new facility. We expect phosphate prices to remain at these levels for the next two years. This should incentivise a producer to invest in new greenfield capacity outside the usual suspects of Saudi Arabia and Morocco. The question for prospective producers is whether the voluntary measures that have supported prices this year will last. Still, there are some good reasons to invest in new capacity, particularly in the US and Australia.

(Source: CRU)
Top fertilizer calls for 2025! – CRU Group

Supplies Tighten for Phosphate, Urea
Another phosphate fertilizer outlook. This one from Michel Poiron, regional sales manager for Nutrien Wholesale calling for phosphate prices to be elevated for a while.

When compared to grain prices, phosphate fertilizer is expensive right now in North America.
That dynamic isn’t going to change anytime soon because inventories are down in the United States and imports of phosphate are almost non-existent, says a Nutrien rep.

“Phosphate does have a lot of challenges in 2025,” said Michel Poiron, regional sales manager for Nutrien Wholesale.
“I don’t believe they will be rectified in 2025. I believe phosphate is in a cycle that it will be (elevated) for awhile.”


(Source: Producer.com)
Supplies tighten for phosphate, urea | The Western Producer

USD/CAD Spikes to Fresh Monthly High as Trump Prepares Canada Tariff

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD

USD/CAD spikes to a fresh monthly high (1.4517) as US President Donald Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting February 1.  The exchange rate may continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.4217) as it still holds above the moving average.
(Source: Forex.com)
https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/usdcad-spikes-to-fresh-monthly-high-as-trump-prepares-canada-tariff-01-21-2025/

North America Urea Last Week  
According to Green Markets, last week, urea in Western Canada jumped 11.7% on average to a range of C$780-$800/mt WoW vs the previous week’s print of C$695-$720/mt. Supply is tight globally which should continue to support prices. There is no reason to expect a drop in prices going into spring.

Urea NOLA ended last week up 5.3%% WoW to a range of US$362-$370/st, from a range of US$340-$355/st, the previous week. We would not be surprised to see this urea NOLA price over $400 heading into spring planting.

Reiterating the global issues that are expected to push NOLA urea prices up include tight supply globally, Indian tender expected to soak up Middle Eastern supply and Chinese export controls. On the demand side, European and North American buyers have been waiting to load up. A pull from the demand side will support prices into the spring season.

According to Direct Hedge, the third week of the new year started with January urea NOLA quoted at US$350/st bid and US$355/st offer. February was US$360/st bid and $370/st offer, March was US$370 bid and US$380 offer and all Q1 2025 was US$365/st bid and US$375/st offer.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range fell slightly WoW on the low end of the range to C$1,115-$1,140/mt from a range of C$1,120-$1,140/mt. MAP inventory is reportedly also quite tight in North America.

MAP NOLA prices were up slightly on the high end of the range to US$580-$585/st from US$580/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits

 

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