Fertilizer Market Report – October 2, 2024
Shifting Focus to Phosphate Markets in Asia
Fertilizer Market Report – October 2, 2024
In this week’s fertilizer report: Shifting Focus to Phosphate Markets in Asia; New Deal Hopes to Establish an Alternative Port for Grain Shipments; What a month! Commodity Markets Rallied +4.4% in September; Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action; and Other Industry Tidbits.
News of the Week
Shifting Focus to Phosphate Markets in Asia
This article published by Waypoint Commodities is a timely analysis of the global phosphate market with the conclusion that supply will be tight for at least a few years while demand continues to grow at rate of 1.5%-2% annually. This supply/demand situation will support prices globally including in Western Canada.
In recent years, the Asian phosphate market has emerged as a critical focus for global suppliers and buyers alike. Several key trends have driven this shift, including rising agricultural demands, geopolitical factors influencing supply chains, and the increasing importance of phosphates for industrial applications, such as battery production. For potential buyers in Asia, this article aims to simplify the phosphate market’s current state and provide data-driven insights into the opportunities and challenges ahead.
Shifting Focus to Phosphate Markets in Asia | LinkedIn
New Deal Hopes to Establish an Alternative Port for Grain Shipments
Invest Tisdale, the economic development agency for the town and surrounding area in northeast Saskatchewan, signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) last week with Arctic Gateway Group LP, which owns the Port of Churchill, to work toward the establishment of regular rail service to the port.
In our view, this port could be used for grain out and fertilizer in utilizing rail backhaul. Could be interesting.
Deal hopes to establish alternative port for grain shipments | The Star Phoenix
North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada increased slightly WoW to a range of C$650-$655/mt from C$645-$650/mt.
Last week, the NOLA urea price range tightened to US$315-$320/st from US$308-$323/st the previous week. There seems to be a bit of a struggle in the US between fertilizer retailers and farmers who are saying that fertilizer is too expensive considering low crop prices. There is still time for famers to purchase fertilizer so there could be a standoff going into Q4.
According to Direct Hedge, this week started with urea Nola spreads of US$310/st bid and US$320/st offer for October. November was quoted at US$315/st bid and US$320/st offer. December was US$315/st bid and $320/st offer and Q4 was US$315/st bid and US$323/st offer. These bids were all up US$5/st WoW due to the surprise Indian tender.
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices increased to a range of C$1,090-$1,105/mt from C$1,080-$1,100/mt. MAP supply remains tight across North America.
MAP NOLA prices fell slightly to a range of US$610-$615/st from US$625-$635/st the previous week.
India is starving for DAP. Green Markets reported that India has only about 30 days to cover all of its Rabi season phosphate requirements. With the country being short phosphate and such a short time to cover its needs, prices will likely remain firm. China continues to restrict phosphate exports to India which is supporting prices globally. Canada is fully dependent on phosphate imports. This tight supply of phosphates will support prices in Western Canada.
Industry Tidbits
