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Fertilizer Market Report – January 29, 2025

Offers Emerge for India’s RCF Urea Tender

In this week’s fertilizer report: Offers Emerge for India’s RCF Urea Tender; How Trump’s Tariffs (or No Tariffs) Could Impact the Canadian Dollar and Canadian Economy; and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action

News of the Week
Offers for the RCF Urea tender were submitted. On Monday morning, the higher Indian tender offer prices pushed up March NOLA urea bids from US$375/st this morning to US$380/st. An over-the-counter swap for March was offered at US$395/st in early afternoon. According to one of our sources, traders are looking to NOLA for value. As we wrote last week, NOLA urea prices will have to rise to attract tons before spring season.

Offers Emerge for India’s RCF Urea Tender: Update
Prices under Indian fertilizer importer RCF’s 23 January tender have emerged, with the lowest urea offers at US$422/t cfr west coast and US$427/t cfr east coast.
(Source: Argus Media)
Offers emerge for India’s RCF urea tender: Update | Latest Market News

How Trump’s Tariffs (or No Tariffs) Could Impact the Canadian Dollar and Canadian Economy
A great article written by Interchange Financial explains how tariffs or no tariffs could impact the Canadian dollar.
When it comes to international trade, tariffs can have a massive influence on a country’s economy—and the currency that represents it. For Canada, a nation deeply integrated with the global economy and heavily reliant on exports, the presence or absence of tariffs has a direct impact on the Canadian dollar (CAD), the USD dollar (USD), and the overall Canadian dollar exchange rate. Let’s explore how tariffs—or the lack thereof—could shape the future of the Canadian economy and its currency.

Topics in this article include:

  • The Role of Tariffs in Trade and the Economy
  • The Impact of Tariffs on the Canadian Dollar
  • No Tariffs: A Boost for the Canadian Dollar?
  • A Balancing Act for Canada

(Source: Interchange Financial)
How Trump’s Tariffs (or No Tariffs) Could Impact the Canadian Dollar and Canadian Economy – Interchange Currency Exchange

North America Urea Last Week  
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$780-$800/mt after jumping 11.7% on average the previous week. Supply is tight globally which should continue to support prices. There is no reason to expect a drop in prices going into spring.

Urea NOLA prices ended last week up US$1/st on the low end and down US$2/st on the high end, WoW, to a range of US$363-$368/st, from a range of US$362-$370/st, the previous week. We would not be surprised to see this urea NOLA price over $400 heading into spring planting. Notice below how February urea NOLA bid/ask spread is much higher than Friday’s close.

Following the Indian tender results, near-term urea NOLA prices rose.

Tuesday morning, Falcon Commodities framed up the urea NOLA market as follows:

February was bid US$377 and offered $385/st. March was bid/offer US$380/$390/st. April was bid/offer US$350/$360/st. May was bid/offer US$350/$360/st. June was bid/offer US$325/$340/st.

Reiterating the global issues that are expected to support NOLA urea prices include tight supply globally, Indian tender expected to soak up Middle Eastern supply and Chinese export controls. On the demand side, European and North American buyers have been waiting to load up. A pull from the demand side will support prices into the spring season.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was flat WoW at C$1,115-$1,140/mt for the second week in a row. MAP inventory is reportedly quite tight in North America.

MAP NOLA prices were also flat WoW in a range to US$580-$585/st for the second week in a row.

Industry Tidbits


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