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Fertilizer Market Report – March 5, 2025

Mosaic Provides Outlook for the Phosphate Markets

In this week’s fertilizer report: The Mosaic Company Q4 Market Outlook; Funds Continue to Liquidate Long Corn Positions; and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Price Action.

News of the Week
Mosaic provided an outlook for the phosphate markets which supports our view that phosphate prices in Canada will likely stay elevated in the near term.

Andrey Sizov provided an update on the liquidation of corn positions by funds. If this continues, urea prices could feel some pressure post spring.

The Mosaic Company Q4 Market Outlook
2025 Market Outlook Grain and oilseed fundamentals have improved over the past few months, as evidenced by rising corn prices, while most other crop prices remain elevated. This continues to incentivize farmers to apply fertilizers to maximize yields. Demographic changes and government mandates for biofuel usage are expected to provide a long runway for grain and oilseed demand expansion, driving steady growth in fertilizer shipments in 2025 as well as longer term.

Phosphate markets are expected to remain tight driven by continued supply constraints and increasing demand for fertilizer, fuel, and industrial uses. Chinese phosphate exports in 2024 declined 8 percent or over 600,000 tonnes from the prior year, and the long-term outlook remains favorable as Chinese domestic use and industrial needs will continue to be prioritized over fertilizer exports.

Potash markets are improving in the near to medium term driven by output reductions from key producers in Russia, Belarus and China, as well as headwinds to the planned expansions in Laos. The potential impact of tariffs that may be imposed on Canadian potash exports to the U.S. are uncertain, but the tariffs, if levied as originally proposed, would cause significant disruptions in global potash trade flows and logistics. It is expected that tariffs would exert further upward pressure on prices, and that U.S. farmers would bear the cost increase. Even so, we anticipate that potash would remain affordable, and demand would remain robust, in North America and globally.

The potential resolution of the Russia / Ukraine conflict will likely have minimal impact to the potash and phosphate markets and Mosaic as Russian exports have already returned to pre-war levels. Also, Belarusian exports have already returned to 90% of pre-sanction levels, and it is not clear that a resolution would open up the most critical transit corridor necessary to bring about a full production resumption.

With these market dynamics, the prospects of potash are compelling in 2025 and beyond.
(Source: Mosaic)
The Mosaic Company Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results

Funds Continue to Liquidate Long Corn Positions
Stairs up, elevator down… Funds continue to liquidate long corn positions. The market overlooked China’s tariffs on U.S. ag products—but Beijing seems well-prepared, and a quick de-escalation looks unlikely. If this drags on, South America stands to benefit—🇧🇷🇦🇷 Brazil & Argentina can ramp up exports of grains, oilseeds, and even meat. The EU, Ukraine and Australia could gain as well. Russia may also increase livestock exports, and perhaps Beijing will revisit full Russian wheat imports.


(Source: Andrey Sizov, Grain Trader) Post | LinkedIn

North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada jumped 5.5% to C$860/mt WoW from a range of C$800-$830/mt. Canada was playing a bit of catchup with NOLA in price increases since mid December.

Urea NOLA prices ended last week flattish WoW, in a range of US$385-$403/st from US$380-$412/st the previous week. Urea NOLA prices are volatile as speculation looms around the next Indian tender.

Falcon Commodity Markets framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: March was bid US$385 and offered $395/st. April was bid/offer US$375/$385/st. May was bid/offer US$350/$360/st. June was bid/offer US$335/$345/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range rose 1.3% WoW to a range of C$1,135-$1,155/mt after sitting at C$1,120-$1,140/mt for three weeks. MAP inventory is still reportedly quite tight in North America.

MAP NOLA prices were up 1.7% WoW to a range US$595-$615/st from US$595/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits

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