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Fertilizer Market Report – September 18, 2024
Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates
In this week’s fertilizer report: Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates, August 2024; MosaicProvides Update on Potash and Phosphate Operations; Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action; and Other Industry Tidbits.
News of the Week
Model-Based Principal Field Crop Estimates, August 2024
In 2024, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, oats and soybeans, but less canola, corn for grain and barley, compared with 2023, according to recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.
The Daily — Model-based principal field crop estimates, August 2024 (statcan.gc.ca)
Mosaic Provides Update on Potash and Phosphate Operations
The following update from Mosaic regarding its phosphate operations makes us more uncomfortable about the tight global phosphate supply. We believe that this impact to Mosaic’s phosphate production in the third quarter will support phosphate prices in North America.
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) today announces Potash and Phosphate operations sustained operational challenges that are expected to reduce production volumes and shipments in the third quarter of 2024.
In Phosphate, production volumes and shipments during the quarter have been negatively impacted by weather events including Hurricane Francine with an estimated aggregate impact of 80-110 thousand tonnes.
Mosaic Provides Updates on Potash and Phosphate Operations
North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$645-$650/mt. As we progress through harvest in Western Canada, farmers will be looking at fertilizer prices to determine when to begin filling bins.
Urea prices in Eastern Canada were down to C$592-$645/mt FOB in early September, from C$700/mt.
Last week, NOLA urea prices increased to a range of US$311-$322/st from a range of US$308-$313/st the previous week.
Direct Hedge reported, this week started with urea Nola spreads of US$310/st bid and US$320/st offer for September. October was quoted at US$305/st bid and US$315/st offer. November was US$305/st bid and $315/st offer and Q4 was US$305/st bid and US$315/st offer. Each bid was down US$5/st to start the week.
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW in a range of C$1,080 – $1,100/mt. MAP supply remains tight across North America.
In Eastern Canada, MAP offers increased to C$980-$1,025/mt FOB, versus the previous C$980-$995/mt FOB range. DAP was flat WoW at C$960/mt FOB Montreal in early September.
MAP NOLA prices were down surprisingly on the low end to a range of US$625-$635/st from the previous $635/st.
As China continues to prohibit all phosphate exports, countries such as India are starving for DAP. Green Markets quoted that “India remains desperately short of DAP.” This combined with the news from Mosaic will keep global supply tight which is worrisome for Canadian producers. Canada is fully dependent on phosphate imports. This tight supply of phosphates will support prices in Western Canada.
Industry Tidbits
