FERTILIZER MARKET REPORT February 24, 2023

Most interesting argument I have seen in a while:

The CRU #fertilizer affordability index is now just above the ten year average. This is positive, but given the long and seasonal supply chain, we don’t expect a pronounced uptick in demand until 2024.

Last week, the urea market was quite driven by speculation of an Indian tender coming imminently after only one producer offered into the monthly tender idea. However…

This week, Indian Potash Ltd (IPL) tendered for 1 million mt of urea, with bids due on March 3 and to remain valid up to March 13.

This tender was interesting to the market.

This tonnage will continue to keep the market guessing and likely continue to cap prices globally.

Again, how do we figure out this pricing mechanism is going to impact Western Canada Pricing?

North America Urea Last Two Weeks

According to Green Markets, urea pricing dropped to a wide C$880-C$1,020/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location and supplier, down C$25/mt at the low end of the range.

According to Green Markets, last week, NOLA urea barges were put in the US$302-US$325/st FOB range. Early-last-week trades were noted in the US$302-US$315/st FOB range, with late-week business reported as high as US$325/st FOB. This compares to the previous week’s range of US$300-US$340/st FOB.

Early this week, NOLA urea prices were reported to have strengthened to US$325-US$350/st FOB in early-week trading, up from the week-ago US$302-US$325/st FOB. Some of this could be due to India finally announcing a new tender, which was for 1 million mt, with bids due March 3.

We believe that this could be a knee-jerk reaction to what will result in being a bearish urea Indian tender in the end.

North America Phosphate Last Two Weeks

MAP prices in Eastern Canada slipped to a broad C$1,080-C$1,280/mt FOB for recent offers, down another C$20/mt at the low end of the range.

According to Green Markets, last week, sources described a muted week on the NOLA phosphate barge market, with some players reportedly taking a wait-and-see approach one week after barges recorded a dramatic decline in values.

NOLA MAP barges were similarly flat, with most calling pricing at a US$550-US$555/st FOB low, unchanged from the previous week floor, while continuing to put the weekly top at US$565/st FOB.

Domestic phosphate producers were noted re-evaluating offer levels for both DAP and MAP during the week, seeking to take into account both the market’s recent volatility and the outlook for spring.

Some players attributed the market’s recent price weakness to indexing efforts by importers ahead of the spring season, while others ascribed the softness to low seasonal demand. Values were generally anticipated to stabilize as the market creeps closer to spring. “I would expect prices to rebound somewhat with a demand kick, and once these pricing windows have abated,” one trader said.

Green Markets Global Macro Comments

India

The Indian government is stepping up its plan to increase production of Nano Urea (Liquid). The product provides nitrogen directly to the crop plant instead of only being absorbed through the soil. The patent for Nano Urea is held by IFFCO.

Two new Nano Urea-producing IFFCO plants were dedicated in mid-February. The government is promoting the product because it will cost less than standard urea and will have less impact on the soil.

Critics question the value of the product, which carries 4% nitrogen content compared to the 26% in standard urea. IFFCO maintains because Nano Urea is absorbed directly into the plant instead of through the root system, the lower nitrogen content will not detract from the efficiency of the product to support sustained crop growth.

Brazil

Last week the landed price came off to US$320-US$340/mt CFR. The drop in pricing was not surprising, as the softening followed price drops from around the world.

Industry Tidbits

• BHP Group Ltd., said it has accelerated the feasibility study for Stage 2 of its Jansen potash mine project in Saskatchewan, with the study now to be completed during the 2024 financial year, a year earlier than previously expected. In the half year to Dec. 31, 2022, the group had already brought forward the target for first production at Jansen to the end of the 2026 calendar year.
• While Nutrien Ltd. missed major analyst projections (BloombergConsensus) for fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, net income, and revenues (GM 10, p. 1), company shares advanced 6.5% on Feb. 16 for its biggest intraday gain since May. This after the company gave guidance that it would slow down its plans to increase potash capacity to 18 million mt/y.
• CF Industries Holdings Inc. reported fourth-quarter net income attributable to common shareholders exceeding the Wall Street projection (BloombergConsensus). Sales figures missed analysts, but were ahead of the year-ago reporting.
• The Mosaic Co. expects to restart potash production at its Colonsay mine in Saskatchewan in the first half of 2023, the company said on Feb. 22, adding “ strong agricultural commodity pricing trends are expected to drive a recovery in demand for fertilizers in 2023.”