FERTILIZER MARKET REPORT February 17, 2023

Urea Western Canada Delivered Price Cratering

Last week, Urea Western Canada delivered price dropped 11.2% to an average of C$773/mt. This marks a 43% decline from the peak price of C$1375/mt seen in April 2022.

North America Urea Last Two Weeks

According to Green Markets, Urea pricing in Western Canada last week dropped to C$745-C$800/mt DEL for February-March tons, well below the last confirmed C$840-C$900/mt DEL range. The latest warehouse prices in the region were pegged in a broad C$750-$820/mt FOB range in early February.

According to Green Markets, the NOLA barge market dipped as low as US$300/st FOB last Thursday, putting the range for the week at US$300-US$340/st FOB, down from the week-ago US$340-US$360/st FOB.

Early this week, NOLA urea prices were reported to be trading in the lower end of the week-ago range of US$300-US$340/st FOB. Urea terminal prices continued to drop, with new offers in the Western Corn Belt and Northern Plains reported at US$360/st FOB St. Paul, Min., US$370/st FOB Port Neal, Iowa, US$440/st FOB Carrington, N.D., and US$480-US$500/st DEL for spring tons in North Dakota.

North America Phosphate Last Two Weeks

According to Green Markets, MAP in Western Canada last week dropped to C$1,100-C$1,120/mt FOB and C$1,075-C$1,095/mt DEL for February-March, down from earlier offers at C$1,110-C$1,130/mt FOB or DEL for January-February. “The pressure on NOLA MAP, and DAP to a lesser extent, seems to be translating to lower inland values across Canada,” said one contact.

NOLA phosphate barges last week were reported stepping down during the week, with players describing prices for both DAP and MAP falling on low seasonal demand.

DAP barges were reported at a US$590/st FOB low for the period, a US$40/st FOB decrease from US$630/st FOB noted previously.

NOLA MAP barges were also lower. Players described the weekly high at US$565/st FOB, while tons were noted changing hands down to US$550/st FOB on Feb. 9, US$25/st below the week-ago US$575/st FOB floor.

Green Markets Global Macro Comments

India

The Indian Potash Limited (IPL) contract tender for urea closed with only one producer making an offer. Sources said that IPL is expected to scrap the tender, which called for a producer to supply monthly cargoes of urea for one year, for a total of 660,000 mt. Sources said the tender made no sense after the prices started falling.

A traditional spot tender will most likely be called by the end of February. Sources said the longer India remains out of the urea market, the softer the market will become. The whole market is looking to India to stem the current decline in pricing, traders said.

Even with the incentive for lower prices, India looks in no rush to call a tender. Recent local news reports have carried statements by government officials that the current urea reserves on hand were already enough to finish off the current season and allow for a good start on the next.

Brazil

Last week opened with international traders calling the Brazilian urea market in the US$360s/mt CFR, and finished with deals at US$350-US$360/mt CFR. By the end of the week, sources were saying US$340/mt CFR was likely soon. Products from Venezuela and other sanctioned states is already being sold in the US$320s/mt CFR.

This week, urea prices continued to be in free fall in Brazil at US$335-US$360/mt CFR down from the week-ago US$350-US$360/mt CFR.

Industry Tidbits

• Timac Agro Canada, Napierville, Quebec, have announced a multi-year scientific collaboration with the University of Calgary aiming to contribute to the advancement of national research related to drought tolerance on canola, as well as nitrous oxide emissions reductions in Canadian agriculture.
• The Canadian Association of Agri-Retailers (CAAR) presented several awards at its annual conference in Edmonton, AB, on Feb. 6-8. The Retailer Hall of Fame Award went to Garth MacDonald, CEO of G-Mac’s AgTeam Inc. in Kindersley, Saskatchewan. G-Mac’s is an agricultural retailer with 15 locations in Saskatchewan, which now operate as Simplot Grower Solutions facilities following a recent acquisition by Boise-based J.R Simplot Co.