FERTILIZER MARKET REPORT January 20, 2023

Finally, Urea Western Canada Falls – Still Risk to Downside to Catch Up to NOLA

THE WEEK’S TOP STORIES

• Urea pricing in Western Canada slipped to C$880-$895/mt DEL for January-February and C$840-$865/mt DEL for March-April, down from C$940-$970/mt in late December.
• Until early this week, urea NOLA was still searching for a bottom, dropping another 10% last week to average US$392/st – lowest since June 2021. Average urea NOLA price has dropped by US$518/st from its peak of US$910/st recorded on April 1, 2022.
• This week, NOLA urea prices were reported to have moved up to US$418/st FOB and higher, compared to the week-ago US$375-US$408/st FOB.
• Genesis Fertilizers Selects Saskatchewan for Proposed Urea Fertilizer Plant.

North America Urea Last Two Weeks

According to Green Markets, last week, delivered urea prices in Western Canada were flat for the third week in a row in a range of C$940-C$1045

Urea prices in Western Canada early this week slipped to C$880-$895/mt DEL for January-February and C$840-$865/mt DEL for March-April, down from C$940-$970/mt in late December. That’s a 6% drop from last week’s low and 14% from the high.

In my view, urea Western Canada delivered prices should be in the range of C$775-C$800/mt. I understand that you need fertilizer on farm by April. I still believe that there is more downside risk as I have been forecasting in the last few columns.

A large Western Canada distributor/retailer recently posted July and August FOB Southern Saskatchewan prices at C$810/mt. January is C$855/mt therefore they see the forward curve sloping down into July.

Last week, NOLA urea barges dropped as low as US$375/st FOB in early-week trading, the first time the market was recorded trading below US$400/st FOB since June 2021. After the fall, prices gained some strength and were reported rising into the US$395-US$408/st FOB range later in the week. The week-ago range was US$416-US$455/st FOB. Sources cited the absence of an India tender for the weakness.

Early this week NOLA prices were slightly firmer versus last week, at US$$418/st.

North America Phosphate Last Two Weeks

Last week, delivered MAP prices were flat week-over-week in Western Canada for the third week in a row at C$1,155-C$1,160/mt.

Last week, sources reported a mixed NOLA phosphate market, with DAP barges firming from week-ago levels while MAP softened from its recent top. MAP barges were seen ticking lower, however, with domestically produced tonnage trading at US$610/st FOB, lower than week-ago price ideas quoted up to US$620/st FOB. Most put the bottom of the range at US$605/st FOB, even with the prior MAP floor. MAP barges were tabbed at US$605-US$610/st FOB, below the week-ago US$605-US$620/st FOB.

Early this week, MAP pricing in Western Canada reportedly fell to the low-C$1,100s/mt FOB for January-February, down from the C$1,135-$1,180/mt FOB range confirmed for earlier December-January offers.

Green Markets Global Macro Comments

India

Sources are now convinced there will be no spot tender call until mid-February. One trader noted that India will first want to get past the Indian Potash Limited (IPL) tender call for 600,000 mt to be delivered over a one-year period.

The IPL tender will close on January 23, and represents the first time one of the major Indian importers issued a tender of this type. IPL is asking for a commitment of at least one cargo per month through February 2024, with each shipment to be priced at a discount to market values. The tender is open only to producers.

This new type of tender will keep the market guessing as to how the pricing mechanism will impact the global urea market.

Brazil

The lackluster global market is having an impact on Brazil, and prices have softened to US$445-US$460/mt CFR. Unconfirmed reports put bidding as low as US$430/mt CFR, with no takers so far.