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Fertilizer Market Report – August 21, 2024 

MAP Has Never Been More Expensive in Brazil vs. Urea and Potash

Fertilizer Market Report – August 21, 2024 

In this week’s fertilizer report: MAP Has Never Been More Expensive in Brazil vs. Urea and Potash, Winds of Change Across the Prairies,  Explainer: Why Canada Is On The Verge of An Unprecedented Rail Labour Stoppage, How a Rail Strike Could Impact Canada’s Agriculture Industry, Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action and Industry Tidbits.

News of the Week

MAP Has Never Been More Expensive in Brazil vs. Urea and Potash

Great analysis from a fertilizer analyst who I believe is one of the best – Harry Minihan, from Argus Media.

“The price of MAP in Brazil is now pretty much double the average of urea and potash combined (ratio of 1.98:1 as of last week). The ratio stood at an average of 1.42:1 over the past decade or so.

MAP has never been more expensive in Brazil vs urea and potash

Winds of Change Across the Prairies

John Stackhouse has been around banking for a long time. He penned a great piece about the changes happening in the Prairies. We believe that everyone should read and digest this article. 

“I was in the Prairies this week and could sense some winds of change. I travelled to a 40,000-acre grain farm in southern Saskatchewan, an agriculture research station in southern Manitoba, a bus manufacturer in Winnipeg and met with a range of farmers, policymakers, academics and business thinkers.”

Here is what John learned on this trip.

Winds of Change Across the Prairies | LinkedIn

Explainer: Why Canada Is On The Verge of An Unprecedented Rail Labour Stoppage

For the first time, Canada’s two main railway companies – Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP.TO) are on the verge of a simultaneous labor stoppage that could inflict billions of dollars’ worth of economic damage.

Northey says 80-85 per cent of agriculture products get moved by rail, so a rail strike would be a catastrophe for farmers.

How a Rail Strike Could Impact Canada’s Agriculture Industry

Manitoba’s agricultural industry is bracing for the worst, as Canada’s two main national railways are threatening to lock out employees if their labour negotiations aren’t resolved.

“We rely on both CPKC and CN and without rail, our product doesn’t move,” said Greg Northey, vice-president of corporate affairs at Pulse Canada.

How A Rail Strike Could Impact Canada’s Agriculture industry | CityNews Winnipeg

North America Urea Last Week  

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW closing the week at C$640 -$645/mt. Urea movement is stagnant in Western Canada as farmers have started harvest, yields are questionable in certain areas, commodity prices are down and we are facing a potential rail strike which could impact farm cash flow if the strike is prolonged. 

Last week, NOLA urea prices were up slightly on the high end to a range of US$305-$317/st from US$305-315/st the previous week. Urea NOLA prices have been flattish since May.

According to Direct Hedge, this week started with urea Nola spreads of US$305/st bid and US$315/st offer for August and US$310/st bid and US$317/st offer for September. October was quoted at US$305/st bid and US$310/st offer. Q4 is US$300/st bid and US$310/st offer. All of these were weaker WoW. The NOLA market continues to lack direction.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP price rose 2.6% on the average WoW to a range of C$1,080 – $1,085 from C$1,050 – $1,060. MAP supply is still very tight in North America. A rail strike could push these prices up in Western Canada as we are fully reliant on MAP imports.

MAP NOLA was down 1% on the average to $635 WoW from a range of US$635 – $645/st. 

Industry Tidbits

 

 

 

 

 

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