Fertilizer Market Report – January 15, 2025

Fertilizer Market Report – January 15, 2025
This week’s report is a longer read with a look forward to 2025 fertilizer prices. These analyses point to fertilizer prices being supported through Q1. In our view, at this time, there is no reason to believe that there will be any significant price breaks in fertilizer going into planting season.

Iranian urea supply is constrained as all domestic urea producers, except one, are shut down due to natural gas supply issues. China is expected to continue to keep a lid on exports to keep domestic prices low for its farmers. On the opposite side of the ledger, we are approaching demand season in Europe and North America where buyers have been holding off on purchasing activity. Also, India just announced a urea tender that  will soak up some of the Middle East supply.
In this week’s fertilizer report: India announces fresh urea tender; Indian urea tender pricing estimate; U.S. Fertilizer Industry Faces Familiar Concerns Heading Into 2025; Global urea values have been on a firm footing since early December; Global fertilizer affordability remains weak into 2025…here is why:; Urea NOLA Forward curve forecasting strong price through Q1; Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action.

News of the Week
It is vital for Canadian producers to keep an eye on global fertilizer markets as all of the phosphate fertilizer used here is imported and urea in Western Canada is priced largely off NOLA, plus freight.

The following news of a new Indian urea tender and the outlooks on fertilizer prices leads us to believe that there will not be a major break in prices heading into the spring season. The forward Urea NOLA curve (below) indicates the market is expecting a break in prices in April. This urea forward curve has moved up since the beginning of the year on strong global urea prices.

Urea: RCF India announces fresh purchasing tender for shipments to 5 March
In our view this tender will support global urea prices as it coincides with the opening of the demand season for European and North American buyers while supply is constrained.
Indian Tender Outlined by Profercy:
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited (RCF) has issued a purchasing tender to close on January 23 for shipments to Indian ports by 5 March.
Tender documents state that the agency is targeting 500,000 tonnes on the east coast and 1million tonnes for the west coast, although this is “subject to revision based on the final outcome of the tender.”
The figure is in line with the volume targeted in the earlier NFL tender through which just 187,000tonnes were secured for the west coast.
Indeed, the target appears ambitious given the shipment window. Earlier reports had suggested the shipment window may extend through to end-March.
(Source: Profercy)
Urea: RCF India announces fresh purchasing tender for shipments to 5 March | Profercy

Indian pricing estimate provided by Ilya Motorygin – fertilizer trader
The last tender, excluding the mistakenly offered cargo at $299 per metric tonne, was concluded at US$369.75 per metric tonne CFR WCI. I can only speculate on the prices this time, but I doubt I’m wrong in estimating that we may see a level of US$410 per metric tonne CFR. That’s US$40 per metric tonne higher, or in absolute terms, an additional US$60 million if the entire declared quantity of 1.5 million tonnes is concluded.
(Source: Ilya Motorygin via LinkedIn)
Post | LinkedIn

U.S. Fertilizer Industry Faces Familiar Concerns Heading Into 2025
Crop Life, and especially the writer of this article, Mark Milam, Senior Editor, Fertilizers, at ICIS, does a good job of drawing a picture of what to expect in U.S. fertilizers in the first quarter of 2025. The Canadian fertilizer outlook is expected to mirror this analysis in our view.
As U.S. farmers and the domestic fertilizer industry march towards a new crop season, the concerns in 2025 will be familiar to participants as the unease over supply restriction potentially resulting in price escalation is likely to be foremost when it comes to the crop strategy undertaken.
There will also again be a sharp focus on the direction of crop prices given the expectations by both the agriculture and fertilizer markets that growers will again plant significant acreage this coming spring, especially in terms of corn and soybeans.
(Source : Crop Life)
U.S. Fertilizer Industry Faces Familiar Concerns Heading Into 2025

Global urea values have been on a firm footing since early-December
Another analysis from Profercy supporting the thesis that urea prices will likely remain firm in near term. Note the forecast (in red) moving up from current prices.
Profercy’s World Nitrogen Index is now above 2024 levels and is set to move higher with spot granular urea prices in the east firming in trading today.
Supply cutbacks – most notably in Iran, where no major improvement is expected near-term – and anticipated demand for several markets have supported the gains.
Given values have firmed rapidly in a matter of weeks, affordability issues are unsurprisingly being raised. Yet, nitrogen producers are in the driving seat as 2025 gets into gear.

(Source: Profercy)
Post | LinkedIn

From the Fertilizers’ desk: Global fertilizer affordability remains weak into 2025…here is why:
The Argus fertilizer affordability index indicates that fertilizer is currently less affordable.
Global nutrient affordability continues to be impacted by high fertilizer prices – mainly for urea – weighing on farmer affordability.
The Argus calculated index fell to 0.94 points in the first week of January, unable to recover from a declining affordability trend that started in October 2024.

(Source: Argus Media)
Post | LinkedIn

Urea NOLA Forward curve forecasting strong price through Q1
The forward curve consists of the CME Urea NOLA futures settlement prices which is a financial settlement for urea futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The settlement price is based on market data and price assessments from industry publications.
This forward curve was the settlement prices Monday January 13. It indicates that the market is expecting urea NOLA prices to rise through the spring season and begin to settle down in March/April.

(Source: CME Group)

North America Urea Last Week  
According to Green Markets, last week, urea in Western Canada was flat against the previous week’s print of C$695-$720/mt. Recent strength in global urea markets will likely support this price going into the spring demand season.
Urea NOLA closed the first full week of calendar 2025 in a range of US$340-$355/st, up 4.7% on average from US$326-$338/st on January 3rd. This strength is being driven by tight supplies globally entering the North American and European demand seasons.
According to Direct Hedge, the third week of the new year started with January urea NOLA quoted at US$345/st bid and US$355/st offer. February was US$365/st bid and $370/st offer, March was US$365 bid and US$375 offer and all Q1 2025 was US$365/st bid and US$375/st offer. All of these spreads have risen substantially since the beginning of the year.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was flat week-on-week (WoW) in a range of C$1,120-$1,140/mt. MAP inventory is reportedly quite tight in North America.
MAP NOLA prices were down 1% WoW to US$580/st from a range of US$585-$595/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits

• Genesis Fertilizers’ low-carbon vision for Western Canada: Transforming fertilizer production: Genesis Fertilizers’ low-carbon vision for Western Canada – Genesis Fertilizers
• Peak Research: There’s plenty wheat- (1) Post | LinkedIn
• Is the Dam About to Break in the Canadian Dollar?: USD/CAD: Is the Dam About to Break in the Canadian Dollar? | Forex Factory