Fertilizer Market Report – June 4, 2025

Insight into the premium or discount Canadian farmers pay for urea

In this week’s fertilizer report: Must Show Chart Again and Try to Put This Into Perspective; Urea Market Outlook and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Price Action.

News of the Week
Must Show Chart Again and Try to Put This Into Perspective
The unit-of-measure and currency-adjusted urea price spread between Western Canada and NOLA increased again. We track this because it provides insight into the premium (or discount) Canadian farmers pay for urea while being located next door to urea manufacturing facilities utilizing the world’s lowest production input costs. Economically speaking, the spread should equal NOLA price plus freight to Western Canada in CAD$/mt. Freight from NOLA to Saskatchewan is likely somewhere between C$150-$200/mt. Why is the spread at C$404.875/mt? We recommend that you wait to see on prices for next application season. But that’s an easy call at this time of year.

Urea Market Outlook
Nice concise outlook on the global urea market.
Price Direction Index (PDI): +0.18 – Slightly Bullish
The global urea market continues its complex dance between tightening supply and fluctuating demand. This week’s outlook shows mild bullish sentiment driven by several critical developments.
(Source: Sarina Abdollahi)
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North America Urea Last Week
NOLA urea prices have been on a wild ride. The volatility continued again last week due to India tendering for 1.5 mmt of urea to close June 12. This added upward pressure to global prices everywhere except NOLA. China has cleared some urea for export, but the market is indicating that the market could be short the tendered volume.

According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW at a lofty C$1,000/mt. With NOLA prices falling again WoW, urea in Western Canada remains significantly more expensive on a relative basis. The measurement-and-currency-adjusted spread between Western Canada and NOLA widened again to C$404.75/mt – a level last seen in January 2023.
Urea remained at C$770-$830/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, according to Green Markets.

Urea NOLA prices dropped for the third consecutive week, down 9.0% WoW to a range of US$375-$410/st versus US$390-$473/st the previous week. Average urea NOLA prices have fallen 23.2% since early May.

Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows:May was bid/offer US$445/$455/st. June was bid/offer US$370/$380/st. July was bid/offer US$363/$370/st and Q3 was bid/offer US$363/$370/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week
The phosphate market is tight, largely due to China’s lack of exports. Supply is expected to remain constrained as the country’s anticipated export volume is expected to be half of historical averages. Downstream phosphate fertilizer prices are increasing due to rising raw material input costs. Jordan, a strategic supplier of high-grade phosphate rock is experiencing rising costs for rock. Also, phosphoric acid prices are on the rise. This points to continued firm prices for finished product, DAP and MAP.

According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW in a range of C$1,160-$1,260/mt for the fifth week in a row. MAP was quoted at C$1,065-$1,080/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, with DAP reported at C$1,070/mt FOB Montreal.

MAP NOLA prices increased 2.5% to a range of US$710-$730/st from US$690-$715/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits

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