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Fertilizer Market Report – April 10, 2024

India’s Urea Shake-up: Impact on Global Markets and More in This Week’s Fertilizer Report

In this week’s fertilizer report: lndia shocks the urea market; summary of last week’s fertilizer activity from Argus, North American urea and MAP prices, and industry tidbits.

News of the Week: Fertilizer Market Report

 

India Shocks the Urea Market by Cutting Tender Volume in Half

Last week we wrote that the Indian Tender closed on March 27 with a total of 3.2 million metric tonnes offered with prices ranging from US$339 to $375.25/mt. Indian inventories are comfortable at this time. However, international urea prices could be impacted if India decides to take less than 1 million mt because supply would be floating around.

Well, India shocked the urea market by chopping its original order for 724,000mt more than in half to 340,000 mt. This sent the market reeling, and urea NOLA immediately traded down US$37-$40/st to US$305-$308/st. Bids at NOLA then went to US$290/st.

Fertilizer Market Recap from Argus Media

Harry Minihan from Argus Media always does a good job of summarizing global fertilizer market activity. This summary is especially poignant because the fertilizer markets, especially urea, are weak globally. The urea market was already weakening when India closed the most recent tender. Monday’s news out of India put the global urea market into a bearish mood.

 

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$770-$780/mt DEL. These prices are up C$110/mt or 17% since the recent trough of C$665/mt seen in early January.

We saw a slightly lower offer of $795 FOB Lajord SK.

Last week, NOLA urea prices fell to a wide range of US$320-$370/st, down from US$340-$392/st the previous week. This was the third week in a row with weaker prices WoW. This week, India cut its purchase intentions more than in half and prices continued to fall aggressively on Monday on the back of the Indian tender news.

 

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were flat WoW in Western Canada in a range of C$1,140-$1,145/mt. MAP prices have risen 40% since early July 2023 in Western Canada.

MAP barges were down to a range of US$560-$635/st versus a week-ago at $620-$635/st FOB.

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