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Fertilizer Market Report –November 13, 2024
Indian Urea Tender Sees Slightly Softer Prices
Fertilizer Market Report – November 13, 2024
In this week’s fertilizer report: Indian Urea Tender Sees Slightly Softer Prices; Nutrien Q3 Earnings Outlook; The Mosaic Company Q3 Earnings Outlook; Phosagro Q3 Earnings Outlook; Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action; and Other Industry Tidbits.
News of the Week
Indian Urea Tender Sees Slightly Softer Prices
The lowest offer price into this recent Indian Urea tender was US$362/mt CFR into the west coast of India versus the previous west coast price of US$364.50/mt. India countered immediately but we do not have the counter price information at time of publishing. Some in the market are speculating that India could take as much as 2mmt if that volume is offered in the counter. This would soak up any Middle East supply plus some additional production.
Nutrien Q3 Earnings Outlook
Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.4 billion in the first nine months of 2024 as lower net selling prices more than offset lower natural gas costs and higher sales volumes. Total ammonia production increased in the first nine months of 2024, driven by improved natural gas utilization and reliability at our operations in Trinidad.
Fertilizer demand in North America for the fall application season has been supported by a relatively early harvest and the need to replenish soil nutrients, following a period of lower field activity in the third quarter.
Global ammonia prices have been supported by supply outages, project delays and higher European natural gas values. Chinese urea export restrictions, production challenges from major exporters and strong demand from India and Brazil have tightened the global urea market. US nitrogen inventory was estimated to be well below average levels at the end of the third quarter, which we expect will support demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025.
Global phosphate markets remain tight supported by Chinese export restrictions and production outages in the US. We anticipate some impact on global demand due to tight supply and weaker affordability relative to potash and nitrogen.
Nutrien Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results
The Mosaic Company Q3 Earnings Outlook
Market Outlook Grain and oilseed fundamentals are strong. Improving corn and soybean prices around the world and solid prices for other crops continue to incentivize farmers to apply fertilizers. Government mandates for ethanol consumption in India, Indonesia and Brazil, as well as other biofuel policies, are becoming incrementally constructive and are expected to provide a long runway for grain and oilseed demand expansion, driving steady growth in fertilizer shipments for the long term.
North America is expected to have a long fall fertilizer application season as harvest has progressed ahead of schedule. Weather conditions in Brazil have improved since mid-October and this should limit the delay in planting of the Safrinha crop.
The phosphate market is expected to remain tight well into 2025 driven by supply constraints and increasing demand for fertilizer, fuel, and industrial uses. Chinese phosphate exports for the first 9 months of 2024 declined 8 percent or over half a million tonnes from the prior year, and the long-term outlook remains favorable as Chinese domestic use and industrial needs will continue to be prioritized over fertilizer exports.
The global potash market remains balanced driven by demand growth and record consumption across the globe. Prices around the world have reached bottom and are moving higher while remaining affordable, which bodes well for demand next year.
Mosaic Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results
Phosagro Q3 Earnings Outlook – Fertilizer market in Q3 2024
The lack of large-scale fertilizer exports from China alongside growth in seasonal demand in key Latin American markets and, to a lesser extent, in South Asian countries were the main factors shaping the global fertilizer market in Q3 2024.
Production constraints owing to regular shutdowns for summer maintenance at key fertilizer producers had a positive impact on prices, which was partially offset by the weakening of prices in global markets for agricultural products and, consequently, a decrease in the affordability of fertilizers for agricultural producers.
Prices for phosphate-based fertilizers were supported by Latin American markets, where the third quarter has historically been a period of peak seasonal demand. Despite the low level of subsidies for phosphate-based and potash fertilizers in India, regional prices rose due to the lack of large-scale exports from China and a decrease in inventories, reaching critical levels. The average price for MAP in Q3 2024 was USD 592 per tonne (FOB Baltic), up from USD 532 per tonne (FOB Baltic) in Q2 2024.
Prices for nitrogen-based fertilizers also rose due to seasonal restrictions on exports from Russia, South-east Asia and North Africa amid stable demand from Central and South America as well as a number of large markets in Asia and Oceania. India also stepped up its urea imports. The average price for urea in Q3 2024 was USD 307 per tonne (FOB Baltic), up from USD 278 per tonne (FOB Baltic) in Q2 2024. The average export price for ammonium nitrate in Q3 2024 was USD 237 per tonne (FOB Baltic), versus USD 205 per tonne (FOB Baltic) in Q2 2024.
Outlook for Q4 2024
Demand from India is projected to continue in the phosphate-based fertilizer segment due to the low level of carryover stocks. Exports from US producers of phosphate-based fertilizers are expected to contract, due in part to significant production cuts (the impact of hurricanes) and increased supplies to the domestic market.
In the nitrogen-based fertilizer segment, the market is seeing rising seasonal demand in India and Brazil, two of the largest markets for urea, which is expected to support urea prices.
PhosAgro Reports Operating and Financial Results for 9M 2024
North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were up on the low end of the range to C$$695-$700/mt from a range of C$680-$700/mt for the third week in a row. The Canadian market has had a few headwinds in the urea market lately – 1) the North American market is tight which allows Canadian producers to maintain prices; and 2) the Canadian dollar is going against us making imports more expensive.
Last week, the NOLA urea price range fell another 1.7% on average to US$307-$318/st from US$311-$325/st the previous week.
According to Direct Hedge, the week started with urea Nola spreads of US$310/st bid and US$315/st offer for November. December was quoted at US$310/st bid and US$320/st offer. January was US$315/st bid and $325/st offer and Q1 was US$320/st bid and US$335/st offer. All of these spreads were lower relative to last week’s quotes.
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices were up C$5/mt on the low end to a range of C$1,125-$1,160/mt from C$1,120-$1,160/mt. MAP supply remains tight across North America.
MAP NOLA prices were down slightly WoW on the high end Wto a range of US$635-$640/st from US$635-$645/st.
Industry Tidbits
