Fertilizer Market Report – April 17, 2024


Indian Urea Inventory Recap from Argus Media

Another great explanation from Argus of the urea supply in India explains the big impact on global prices after India cut its urea orders to 340,000mt from the original ask of 724,000mt. The market certainly did not see this action coming. India’s urea inventories were up significantly by the end of March due to increased manufacturing capacity being brought online.

Harry Minihan on LinkedIn: #urea #fertilizer #fertilizers #fertiliser #fertilisers #fertilizantes

The Canadian Dollar’s Worst Weekly Performance in Almost a Year
Last Friday, the Canadian dollar was selling off which led to the worst weekly performance in the CAD$ in almost a year. The US$ has strong bullish momentum due to a reduction of expectations of the US fed rate cut this year. The expectation is that the Bank of Canada will cut rates first and more aggressively than the US Fed and this will push fund flows away from the CAD$ and into the US$.

Canadian Dollar dives against the USD as hopes of Fed cuts wane (fxstreet.com)

Canadian dollar could ‘crater’ if Bank of Canada cuts faster and deeper than the Fed, say economists
Economists from a few of the big banks believe that the Canadian dollar will be in for a rough ride if the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates prior, and more aggressively, than the US Fed.

Canadian dollar could ‘crater’ if Bank of Canada cuts faster and deeper than the Fed, say economists (yahoo.com)


North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada inched up on the low end to C$780/mt DEL from a range of C$770-$780/mt DEL the previous week.

We saw a slightly higher urea offer of $800 for May in Congress, SK.

Last week, NOLA urea prices fell again by 12% WoW to a range of US$280-$330/st from a range of US$320-$370/st the previous week. This was the fourth week in a row with lower prices week over week.
Last week, India cut its purchase intentions almost in half and prices continued to fall aggressively on the back of the Indian tender news. NOLA urea prices have dropped 23% in the last four weeks.
We believe that Canadian urea prices will eventually reverse course and follow NOLA prices. Don’t try to catch a falling knife.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were down slightly on the low end to a range of C$1,135-$1,145/mt from the previous week’s range of C$1,140-$1,145/mt.
MAP NOLA was down to US$550/st from the previous week’s range of US$560-$635/st FOB.

Industry Tidbits