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Fertilizer Market Report – February 5, 2025

Indian Tender Prices Higher than Expected and Accepted Volumes Lower than Expected

Fertilizer Market Report – February 5, 2025
In this week’s fertilizer report: Indian Tender Prices Higher than Expected and Accepted Volumes Lower than Expected; Urea NOLA CME Forward Curve Jumps; EU Tariffs Disrupt Fertiliser Market; and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action.

News of the Week
Indian Tender Prices Higher than Expected and Accepted Volumes Lower than Expected
Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd. (RCF) was expecting to purchase 1.5 mmt. In the end awards totaled 555,900 mt. This has the market speculating that the market supply is tighter than originally expected which drove global urea prices up in the days following the news. On Monday, March Urea NOLA swaps traded up to US$401/st.

Urea NOLA CME Forward Curve Jumps
Notice how the Urea NOLA forward curve jumped following the news of the Indian tender results. The lower line is the forward curve on January 24th, the day after the tender was issued. The higher curve is the curve on February 3rd, after the market heard the tender results.

EU Tariffs Disrupt Fertiliser Market
Great insight from Stein Chingen Haugen, a veteran in the fertilizer industry, explaining potential impacts to global fertilizer trade from recent announcement of proposed import tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers.

The European Commission announced proposed import tariffs on all Russian and Belarusian fertilizers, except for ammonia. If approved by the European Council, these tariffs will be introduced on July 1, 2025, with annual increases starting at EUR 40-45/tonne, reaching between EUR 315/tonne and EUR 430/tonne by 2028, on top of the already imposed 6.5% duty.

In the January-October 2024 period, the EU 27 states imported 1.8 million tonnes of DAP, MAP, NPK and NPS from Russia, accounting for 25% of the total 7.4 million tonnes imported.

The general consensus is that trade flows will shift, with more products from OCP Morocco finding their way to Europe, while Russian fertilizers will need to find alternative markets. This could lead to increased urea imports from the Middle East and other sources.
https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/urea-continues-to-rise-as-eu-proposes-russian-fertiliser-tariffs/

North America Urea Last Week  
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$780-$800/mt. Full month January 2025 Urea Western Canada DEL average price of C$757/mt was 13% higher than January 2024 average price. Supply is tight globally which should continue to support prices. There is no reason to expect a drop in prices going into spring.

Urea NOLA prices ended last week up 4.4% WoW, to a range of US$378-$385/st, from a range of US$363-$368/st, the previous week. Full month January 2025 Urea NOLA average price of US$359/st was 11% higher than January 2024 average price. We would not be surprised to see this urea NOLA price over $400 heading into spring planting.

Direct Hedge framed up the market at the beginning of this week as follows: February was bid US$375 and offered $385/st. March was bid/offer US$380/$390/st. April was bid/offer US$370/$380/st. May was bid/offer US$345/$355/st.

Reiterating the global issues that are expected to support NOLA urea prices include tight supply globally, Indian tender expected to soak up Middle Eastern supply and Chinese export controls. On the demand side, European and North American buyers have been waiting to load up. A pull from the demand side will support prices into the spring season.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was flat WoW at C$1,115-$1,140/mt for the third week in a row. MAP inventory is reportedly quite tight in North America.
MAP NOLA prices were also flat WoW in a range to US$580-$585/st for the second week in a row.

Industry Tidbits


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