Fertilizer Market Report – May 29, 2024


Indian Fertilizer Sector Grappling with Lack of Monsoon Rains

In this week’s fertilizer report:

  • Comments surrounding the Indian fertilizer market from fertilizer trader 
  • Ebrahim Argha commentary 
  • Summary of global urea action during the IFA conference last week 
  • Short covering in the agriculture complex 
  • North American Urea and MAP prices 
  • Industry Tidbits 

News of the Week 

The fertilizer world is concentrating on the timing of India’s next urea tender for indications of price direction. The fertilizer industry consensus seems to be that the next India urea tender could be as late as July due to lack of rain and the impending election. 

Indian Fertilizer Sector Grappling with Lack of Monsoon Rains 

This commentary, from Ebrahim Argha, experienced fertilizer trader, explains how the Indian fertilizer sector is grappling with the lack of monsoon rains resulting in growing inventories within manufacturers. The Indian fertilizer sector is dependent on the monsoon season. 

The Parched Earth and the Promise of Rain: A Dance for RCF Urea Dreams

Summary of Global Urea Action at IFA Conference

A great summary from Harry Minihan of Argus Media of the action in the global urea markets last week at the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) conference in Singapore.  

“The initial rally sparked earlier this month continued through last week, with Egyptian prices for Europe moving into the low $320s/t fob.” 

“For the rally to be sustained, fresh demand from major markets will have to come online and large markets will have to start paying higher prices.” 

After a week which saw urea prices jump by around $30/t from the low $280s/t fob Egypt, many in the market gathered in Singapore to test the waters.

Short Covering in Ag Complex 

If you recall, we have been calling for hedge funds to short cover in the ag complex. On April 24, funds were shortest in ag complex in over four years. In the last few weeks, funds have been covering the massive short positions across the Grain and Oilseed markets. 

Hedge funds have been covering their MASSIVE short bets across the Grain and Oilseed markets

North America Urea Last Week 

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were quoted in a range of C$775-$780/mt DEL, unchanged WoW for the fourth week in a row.  

Last week, NOLA urea prices rose slightly on the bottom end of the range and fell on the top end of the range to US$285-$295/st from the previous week’s US$282-$298/st. The average price of US$290/st was, however, unchanged.  

We believe that urea prices in Western Canada are going to eventually correct to the downside. Our advice here at Genesis is to sit and wait.  



North America Phosphate Last Week 

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW for the seventh week in a row in a range of C$1,135-$1,145/mt.  

MAP NOLA was up to a range of US$530-$565/st from the previous week’s US$520-$535/st.

Industry Tidbits