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Fertilizer Market Report – March 19, 2025

India Holding a Strong Hand

News of the Week

India Holding a Strong Hand
Ilya Motorygin (fertilizer trader) provides a short, concise explanation of the game India is playing with the urea market. Urea NOLA, China and Middle East have weakened in the last few weeks due to the absence of an Indian tender which was expected by now.

“Trading is gambling and manipulation. By the way, many good traders I know don’t gamble in casinos, as they already get enough risk and adrenaline in the office.

The Department of Fertilizers (DOF) in India is playing its strong hand rather well this time. I’m talking about urea, of course. The country’s stocks are relatively low (not more than 5 million metric tonnes, I’d guess), production is lagging, and the last two purchasing tenders were below expectations in terms of tonnage. Yet, the country keeps delaying its new tender. Guess what’s happening to the price? Correct-it’s going down. I’d say we’ve already seen a solid $20–30 PMT “correction” across all markets while India keeps rumouring that the new tender announcement is coming “tomorrow.”

Plus, Iran is back on stream (and by the way, Bitcoin is below $85k again).

Very clever behaviour by the DOF, I must admit.”
(Source: Ilya Motorygin, Fertilizer Trader) Post | LinkedIn

Resourceful: How Canada Can Strike a New Commodity Deal with the U.S. and Others
An insightful white paper from RBC explaining the importance of Canada’s resources.

U.S. tariffs looming over Canada’s economy demand an urgent, forceful and strategic response. The next 30 days are critical: Canada must demonstrate to Washington that America’s path to energy and economic security depends on Canada. Especially, Canadian resources.

A focus on key commodities can underpin a broader Canadian industrial resurgence that boosts Canadian GDP, revitalizes technical innovation, attracts foreign and domestic investment in several key areas, enhances productivity and accelerate Indigenous investments in resources. That would make us indispensable to U.S. interests, and a key pillar of its economic and energy strategy.
(Source: RBC The Trade Hub) Resourceful: How Canada can strike a new commodity deal with the U.S. and others – RBC Thought Leadership

North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW at C$860/mt for the third week in a row. Canada’s delivered urea price is lagging behind the weakness in NOLA prices.

Urea NOLA prices ended last week in a tighter range WoW at US$380-$386/st versus US$378-$388/st the previous week. Urea NOLA average prices are down 8.2% over the last four weeks due largely to India being absent from the market.

Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: March was bid US$378 and offered $382/st. April was bid/offer US$365/$375/st. May was bid/offer US$345/$355/st. Q2 was bid/offer US$350/$360/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was flat WoW in a range of C$1,135-$1,155/mt for the third week in a row. MAP in Western Canada is the fertilizer that has us worried. The global pipeline is tight. Add to that reported freight issues causing strain on supply. January 2025 average MAP Western Canada price was $50/mt higher than January 2024 and February 2025 was $15 higher than February 2024.

MAP NOLA prices were flat on the low end and down on the high of the range WoW to a range US$605-$610/st from US$605-$615/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits

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