Fertilizer Market Report – March 26, 2025

News of the Week

Forward Curve Fell Significantly in Last Month

Notice the fall in the front month prices of Urea NOLA futures from February 18 to March 25 and the flattening of the curve in the out months. The market was holding March and April urea NOLA prices firm on the expectation of another Indian tender. India has not returned to market putting a bearish sentiment into prices.

Since February 14, urea NOLA prices have fallen 9.2% whereas Western Canada DEL urea prices increased 5.5%. This divergence in prices has once again blown out the CAD$ adjusted spread between the two. We are beginning to lean toward the belief that Canadian prices will soften rather than NOLA prices rising significantly to return the spread back to historical averages.

Global Fertilizer Affordability Drops to 2½-Year Low

Global fertilizer affordability has dropped to its lowest in two and a half years, driven by firm phosphate and potash prices, while crop values have dipped to the lowest since 2020.

Nutrient affordability fell to 0.82 points in March, the lowest since November 2022, Argus data show.

An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability.

The index has dropped owing to higher fertilizer prices for phosphates and potash, which were partly offset by a decline in urea prices. Crop prices have fallen for all major grains and oilseeds on trade tensions.

Phosphate prices were supported by competing demand for limited supply. The absence of Chinese product from the global phosphates market since late 2024 has kept supply tight.

Additionally, a lack of clarity surrounding China’s return to the export market, while firm sulphur and sulphuric acid costs force domestic DAP/MAP prices higher, has prevented any softer sentiment in the region.

(Source: Argus )
Global fertilizer affordability drops to 2½-year low | Latest Market News

North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW at C$860/mt for the fourth week in a row. Canada’s delivered urea price is lagging the weakness in NOLA prices.

Urea NOLA prices were weak again last week down to a range of US$373-$384/st versus US$380-$386/st the previous week. Urea NOLA average prices are down 9.2% over the last five weeks due largely to India being absent from the market.

Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: March was bid US$375 and offered $382/st. April was bid/offer US$360/$370/st. May was bid/offer US$345/$355/st. Q2 was bid/offer US$345/$360/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range was up WoW on the high end of the range to C$1,135-$1,165/mt from C$1,135-$1,155/mt. MAP in Western Canada is the fertilizer that has us worried. The global pipeline is tight. Add to that reported freight issues causing strain on supply. January 2025 average MAP Western Canada price was $50/mt higher than January 2024 and February 2025 was $15 higher than February 2024. Another week of these inflated prices and March average Western Canada MAP price will be higher YoY also.

MAP NOLA prices were up WoW to US$610/st from US$605-$610/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits
• https://www.producer.com/news/phosphate-may-move-through-churchill/
• Grain Growers alarmed by possible fertilizer tariffs
• Letters: Western Canola tariffs to save Eastern EV cars unconscionable | Regina Leader Post
• Nitrogen Production Costs (Ilya Motorygin): Post | LinkedIn
• Farmland values keep climbing, but affordability concerns growing
• Farmland prices rise in Ontario
• Trump’s Bold Action on Critical Minerals Supports Farmers and U.S. Food Security – The Fertilizer Institute