Fertilizer Market Report – May 14, 2025

Chinese Export Uncertainty Pressures Urea

Fertilizer Market Report – May 14, 2025

News of the Week
Chinese Export Uncertainty Pressures Urea
The international urea market is in disarray, particularly due to the lack of an official directive from the Chinese government on export policy. On May 7, the Economic and Trade Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organised a special symposium on fertilizer exports. The meeting conducted an in-depth discussion on the orderly promotion of urea and phosphate fertilizer exports for 2025.

It appears that there will be a quota system, with products allocated to qualifying companies, and that the export period is tentatively set between May and September. The total export volume has not been decided, other than the stipulation that it cannot exceed the export scale of 2023. One particular note from the meeting states that “fertilizer export to India is prohibited this year.”
(Source: Czapp.com)
Urea Market Hit by Chinese Export Uncertainty

CF Q1 Outlook
Nitrogen Market Outlook
Global nitrogen pricing was supported in the first quarter of 2025 by positive global demand, constrained supply availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran, and China’s continued restrictions on urea exports. In the near-term, management expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive due to expected strong demand from the global corn stocks-to-use ratio reaching its lowest level since 2013, below average global inventories, and challenging production economics in Europe.

North America: Management expects strong nitrogen demand in North America during the spring application season due to favourable returns for corn compared to soybeans, driving higher planted corn acres in 2025 compared to 2024. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported in March that growers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in the United States in 2025.

Brazil:Brazil is expected to remain the largest urea import region, with urea imports projected to exceed 8 million metric tons, supported by strong planted corn acreage and continued nominal domestic nitrogen production.

India: Lower-than-targeted domestic urea production and higher year-over-year urea sales lowered urea inventory by approximately 35% compared to March 2024. As a result, management expects higher urea import requirements for 2025 to meet grower demand and replenish urea stocks.

Europe: Management believes that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output in Europe will remain below historical averages over the long term, given the region’s status as the global marginal producer.

China: Ongoing urea export controls by the Chinese government continue to limit urea export availability from the country, with minimal exports in the first quarter of 2025. Urea exports are not expected to resume until the conclusion of China’s domestic spring application season at the earliest.

Russia:Urea exports from Russia are expected to increase 3% in 2025 due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including the United States and Brazil.

Over the medium term, significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist. As a result, the Company believes the global nitrogen cost structure will remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers.

Longer-term, management expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to tighten as global nitrogen capacity growth over the next four years is not projected to keep pace with expected global nitrogen demand growth of approximately 1.5% per year for traditional applications and new demand growth for clean energy applications. Global production is expected to remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and the availability of natural gas in Egypt, Trinidad, and Iran.
(Source: CF Industries)
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 Net Earnings of $312 Million, Adjusted EBITDA of $644 Million

Nutrien Q1 Outlook
Agriculture and Retail Markets

We expect US crop input demand will be supported by acreage shifts in 2025, with corn planted area expected to increase to approximately 95 million acres and soybean plantings to decline to approximately 83 million acres. Fertilizer application rates in the second quarter have been strong as farmers focus on maximizing yield potential.

Brazilian soybean prices have been supported by strong international demand. Favourable prospective soybean margins and increased projected planted acreage are expected to support strong Brazilian crop input demand in the second half of 2025.

Low precipitation levels in the key cropping regions of Australia led to delayed crop input demand. Timely rains will be required to support winter crop planting and crop input demand.

Crop Nutrient Markets

Global potash demand has remained strong in 2025, and tight supply has supported potash price increases in all key spot markets. We have maintained our 2025 full-year potash shipment forecast of 71 to 75 million tonnes. The high end of the range captures the potential for strong underlying global consumption, and the lower end captures the potential for reduced global supply availability.

Global urea supply and demand has tightened in 2025, driven by strong seasonal demand in North America and Europe, combined with Chinese urea export restrictions and unplanned outages in key producing regions. US urea and UAN prices have also been supported by low domestic inventories, trade flow shifts and constrained logistics.

Global ammonia prices weakened in 2025 due to the expectations for new export capacity in the US and Russia, and macroeconomic uncertainty that has impacted industrial demand.

Phosphate markets continue to be tight due to limited supply, including ongoing Chinese export restrictions. We anticipate that global shipments in 2025 will be constrained by supply availability, and weaker grower affordability for phosphate fertilizer could impact demand.

(Source: Nutrien)
Nutrien Reports First Quarter 2025 Results

Fertilizer Canada Competitive Concerns
North America Urea Last Week
NOLA urea prices have been on a wild ride lately – up again last week even after China announced that it is opening exports again.

According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat in a range of C$880-$915/mt.

Urea NOLA prices were strong again, up another 5.7% last week to a range of US$460-$562/st versus US$445-$522/st the previous week.

Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: May was bid/offer US$480/$490/st. June was bid/offer US$380/$395/st. July was bid/offer US$345/$355/st, and Q3 was bid/offer US$345/$355/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP prices were flat WoW in a range of C$1,160-$1,260/mt.

MAP NOLA prices tightened slightly on the low end to a range of US$650-$660/st from US$645-$660/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits