Fertilizer Market Report – December 06, 2023

China’s Fertilizer Export Ban and Canola Price Rally Foreseen Amid Holiday Lull

Fertilizer Market Report 2023/12/06 | In this week’s report, China Bans Fertilizer Exports Until April 2024, Rabobank sees potential for a canola price rally and North American fertilizer prices. It’s quiet in the fertilizer world as people are starting to shutdown for Christmas holidays.

China Bans Fertilizer Exports Again

This article on Czapp, Czarnikow’s market portal, has an opposing view to our belief as it sees weak demand in the urea market internationally. We argue that this is the time when buyers sit back and wait for the new year. It is however good to consider all analysis whether we agree or not.

The main point to consider is that China has shut down all exports of fertilizer. China will not be exporting to India in the next tender which should impact urea prices globally when India tenders again.

The other main point in the article, which we believe is the linchpin for global urea prices, is that the US will need to import sizeable volumes for the upcoming spring season. That could be a catalyst for urea prices in our view.

News of the Week

Rabobank Sees Potential Rally In Canola Prices

Stephen Nicholson, global sector strategist for grains and oilseeds, sees a potential rally in canola. Stephen spoke at GrowCanada about his view on canola prices. He believes that new crushing demand for Western Canadian canola will support prices.

North America Urea Last Week

Urea prices fell last week in Western Canada to a range of C$660-$685/mt from the previous week’s range of C$750-$760/mt, according to Green Markets.

Last week, urea NOLA rose slightly to a range of US$295-$310/st from the previous week’s range of US$292-$305/st.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest MAP offers in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$1,050-$1,060/mt DEL.

The NOLA phosphate market demand was healthy with OCP’s return to the US market due to decreased countervailing duties. NOLA MAP price range widened a bit to a range of US$590-$610/st.