Fertilizer Market Report – April 24, 2024


China Reverses Course on Urea Exports

China surprised the global urea market again by reversing course on export policy. A few weeks ago the country’s National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) allowed producers to begin exporting urea in May. This decision was quickly reversed after India decided to halve its orders and the NDRC confirmed that exports will be delayed. The government added another layer of approval for urea exports making it more difficult to export. Approval to export will only happen if the domestic price fall and these new export restrictions have traders confused.

Funds Are Shortest in Ag Complex in Over Four Years

Weak demand, big supply and the strong US dollar are prompting funds to continue to short the Ag complex. Watch out for short covering.

Peak Trading Research on LinkedIn: #agriculture

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat week over week at C$780/mt DEL.

This week, a terminal in Lajord, SK, had urea offers at C$770/mt prompt pickup and C$650 for June pickup which was down from last offers.

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Eastern Canada fell by C$20/mt on the low end to a range of C$620-$725/mt.

Last week, NOLA urea prices gained on the low end and fell on the high end tightening the range to US$287-$311/st from the previous week’s range of US$280-$330/st. This was the fifth week in a row with lower average prices WoW.

Last week we wrote “we believe that Canadian urea prices will eventually reverse course and follow NOLA prices. Don’t try to catch a falling knife.” That reversal may have started this week.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were flat WoW in a range of C$1,135-$1,145/mt.

MAP prices in Eastern Canada were flat WoW in a range of C$985-$885/mt FOB.

MAP NOLA was down 12% to a range of US$480-$485/mt from US$550/st the previous week.

Industry Tidbits