Fertilizer Market Report – January 8, 2025

A look back at Urea and MAP Western Canada monthly prices

Fertilizer Market Report – January 8, 2025

Welcome to the first week of the new year. Hope you had a great holiday break and are looking forward to 2025. This week’s report will include a look back at 2024 and next week we will look forward to 2025.

In this week’s fertilizer report: A look back at Urea and MAP Western Canada monthly prices, the Canadian dollar and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Action; and Other Industry Tidbits.

News of the Week
The Urea Western Canada DEL price settled down at its lowest annual average level in four years. The 2024 average annual price was C$697/mt relative to C$731/mt in 2023, C$1,105/mt in 2022 and C$780/mt in 2021. Last year, Urea Western Canada traded in a monthly range of C$636/mt and C$779/mt. Geopolitical events that had disrupted the global urea market since late 2021 began to subside in early 2023. Urea prices remained somewhat elevated in Western Canada through 2023 and 2024 due to other events such as Indian demand and Chinese export policy.


(Source Green Markets, A Bloomberg Company)

In Western Canada, MAP DEL was a different story. The increase in average monthly prices began in early 2021 and escalated in mid 2021. The difference with urea, however, is that prices have yet to soften. The average annual price for 2024 was C$1,107/mt vs. C$1,049/mt in 2023, C$1,245/mt in 2022, and C$1,020/mt in 2021. Geopolitical events and export policies kept inventories tight in the US which inflated prices at NOLA. The NOLA price is still supported by tight inventories which is expected to support prices in Western Canada in the short term at least.
 

The Canadian dollar struggled in  2024, falling nearly 8% to $1.4389, the weakest level since March 2020.
According to Interchange Financial the slide in the CAD in December was due to:
Then came December, when the currency’s troubles really picked up steam. The Canadian dollar hit new lows, dipping below 69 cents U.S. (1.44 CAD) before managing a small bounce. But by then, markets were abuzz with talk of traders scrambling for “downside protection” against an even weaker loonie. Here’s what caused the slide:

  1. Tariff Threats: Speculation about a new round of tariffs from Washington continued to rattle market confidence. Even a whiff of policy change affecting cross-border trade can send ripples through Canada’s export-heavy economy.
  2. Another Rate Cut: In an effort to keep the economy afloat, the Bank of Canada once again trimmed rates in December—from 4.00% to 3.75%. While this might help businesses and consumers at home, it lowers the loonie’s allure in international markets. Investors looking for stronger returns or safer bets tend to move their money elsewhere when rates drop.
  3. Global Slowdown Fears: With the U.S. potentially easing off the gas pedal in terms of consumer demand, and lingering uncertainties in Europe and Asia, Canada’s growth prospects for early 2025 suddenly looked shakier than they did over the summer.

(Source: Interchange Financial, December 23, 2024)


(Source: Bank of Canada Exchange Rates Daily)

North America Urea Last Week  
According to Green Markets, the urea price range in Western Canada on December 20th increased 2.5% to a range of C$695-$720/mt from the previous week’s C$680-$700. Urea in Western Canada started the year flat against the December 20th print in a range of C$695-$720/mt.
On December 20th, with support from the Indian urea tender, the NOLA urea price increased 2.9% to a range of US$326-$338/st after rising 3.5% the previous week. Urea NOLA started the new year flat against December 20th in a range of US$326-$338/st.
According to Direct Hedge, the new year started with January urea NOLA quoted at US$335/st bid and US$340/st offer. February was US$335/st bid and $345/st offer, March was US$335 bid and US$345 offer and all Q1 2025 was US$335/st bid and US$345/st offer.

North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, on December 20th, the delivered Western Canada MAP price range decreased 2% to a range of C$1,120-$1,140/mt from the previous week’s C$$1,145-$1,160/mt. That price range was flat on January 3.
On December 20th, MAP NOLA prices decreased 2% ranging from US%585-$595/st compared to US$595-$605/st the previous week. MAP NOLA began the new year down slightly lower, ranging from US$585-$590/st.

Industry Tidbits

 

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