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Fertilizer Market Report – April 23, 2025
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Fertilizer Market Report – April 23, 2025
In this week’s fertilizer report: Urea NOLA Forward Curve Jumps Up Again; Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Level and Last Week’s North American Urea and Phosphate Price Action.
News of the Week
Urea NOLA Forward Curve Jumps Up Again
The Urea NOLA forward curve jumped up again. We believe the market tightened again due to the lower-than-expected volume offered in the last Indian urea tender.
Wednesday morning, Urea NOLA physical traded up to US$465/st. That’s a 13.4% increase from the average US$410/st close on Friday. One trader was quoted as saying, “This market is on crack”.
This strength in the US market creates a “best price” for Canadian producers, leading to exporting to the US as the best market for Canadian producers, which will likely lead to support under Canadian urea prices.
(Source: CME)
Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Level
The Canadian Dollar is threatening to snap a seven-week winning streak with USD/CAD plummeting more than 5.2% off the March highs. The decline takes USD/CAD into critical support and the immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark into the close of the month. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CAD weekly technical chart.
(Source: Forex.com)
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Plunges to Pivotal Trend Support
North America Urea Last Week
According to Green Markets, last week, urea delivered prices in Western Canada were flat WoW at C$860/mt for the eighth week in a row.
Urea NOLA prices were flat last week in a range of US$400-$420/st versus US$3895$425/st the previous week.
Direct Hedge framed up the urea NOLA market at the beginning of this week as follows: April was bid US$400 and offered $410/st, May was bid/offer US$380/$395/st. June was bid/offer US$355/$375/st. Q2 was bid/offer US$375/$395/st.
North America Phosphate Last Week
According to Green Markets, the delivered Western Canada MAP price was flat WoW in a range of C$1,160-$1,190/mt.
MAP NOLA prices were up WoW on the low end and flat on the high end to a range of US$635-$640/st from US$628-$640/st the previous week.
Industry Tidbits
- Ratio of rent to value for Canadian farmland stable in 2024 – Grainews
- 2025 crop outlook: Corn gains ground as farmers shift from soybeans
- ICE canola weekly outlook: Tightening supplies supportive – Grainews
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