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Fertilizer Market Report – February 21, 2024

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Yara’s Outlook Boosts Genesis; Global Agribusiness Reset; Potash Reconsideration; and Fertilizer Price Trends

Fertilizer Market Report 2024/02/21 |In this week’s fertilizer report: excerpts from Yara’s outlook support Genesis Fertilizers; the great reset in global agribusiness, Potash Fertilizer: time for another look, North American urea and MAP prices, and industry tidbits.

News of the Week: Fertilizer Market Report

Excerpts from the Outlook in Yara’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Report

Below are two excerpts from Yara’s Q4 earnings report outlook which in our view supports the Genesis Fertilizers business plan.

“In both Europe and the US, nitrogen supply is so far running behind a normal season, indicating a tighter global balance for the first half of 2024. The start of 2024 has seen increased buying activity and higher prices, signaling a potential volume catch-up into the main application season in the Northern hemisphere.”

“The peak of global urea capacity additions is now behind us, with industry consultant projections showing supply growth well below trend consumption growth from 2024 and onwards, and a historically low number of new projects under construction indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the coming years.”

The ‘Great Reset’ in Global Agribusiness

A great article from Agribusiness Global outlining this year’s forecasted nine black swan events expected in agriculture. What we found interesting is the view that global agribusiness today is being compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This article outlines how agriculture could be impacted in 2024 by stagflation, China, energy, political de-globalization, interest rates, labour migration, climate, regulations, and technology.

Time for Another Look at Potash Fertilizer

Les Henry (Professor Soil Science U of S) writes about how Western Canadian soil is being robbed of potash and the potential consequences. The article explains the current soil test summary data by Agvise Laboratories, which shows the soil K situation after the 2023 crop. Saskatchewan has other older data showing K deficiencies in that province’s northwest and north-central regions.

North America Urea Last Week

According to Green Markets, urea prices in Western Canada were flat WoW in a range  of C$720-$765/mt DEL.

The urea market in Eastern Canada tightened WoW to a range of C$680-$725/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, up from the previous week’s low of C$645/mt FOB.

NOLA urea price range tightened to US$345-$350/st from a range of US$345-$355/st the previous week.

On Feb 1, we highlighted that the price difference between Urea in Western Canada and NOLA “should approximately match the urea price at NOLA plus freight to Western Canada”. We are nearing that point, especially after the recent reduction in the spread from about C$307/mt on November 24 to C$166/mt on Jan 26. The five-year average spread stands at C$168/mt. This suggests that if NOLA urea prices continue to climb, Western Canada is likely to experience higher prices heading into spring.

The following week that spread dropped to C$153/mt on the back of another increase in NOLA prices. Since then, over the past two weeks, Urea Western Canada DEL prices rallied over 10%. We believe that there could be more upside going into the spring season.

North America Phosphate Last Week

According to Green Markets, the latest delivered MAP prices were flat WoW in Western Canada in a range of C$1,120-$1,130/mt. MAP prices have risen 38% since early July 2023 in Western Canada.

The latest MAP offers in Eastern Canada increased slightly to a range of C$993-$995/mt FOB, from the previous week’s C$985-$993/mt range.

MAP NOLA prices were down slightly to a range of US$600-$615/st.

Industry Tidbits

• Grain market outlook looks grim | The Western Producer
• Crop carryout high this year | The Western Producer
• ICE canola weekly outlook: Market in search of demand | Grainews
• Soybean acres may soon stabilize in Manitoba | Grainews
• Carbon exemption amendments costly to farmers: PBO | AGCanada
• Gov data shows zero net reduction in emissions from fertilizer target by 2030 | True North (tnc.news)
• Smallest number of U.S. farms since 1850, says ag census | agriculture.com

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